Large area of destructive storm surge forecast as extremely dangerous Hurricane “Milton” hits Florida
Category 5 Hurricane “Milton” is moving NE toward Florida, U.S. at 22 km/h (14 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), as of 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, October 9, 2024. Milton is forecast to make landfall late tonight or early Thursday along the Florida Gulf Coast, threatening large area with severe storm surges, destructive winds, and heavy rainfall. Authorities are warning Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.
- A wide area of destructive storm surge is expected along parts of Florida’s west-central coast, with water levels forecast to reach over 3 m (10 feet). Residents in the storm surge warning area face life-threatening conditions and should evacuate immediately if directed by local authorities.
- Devastating hurricane-force winds are forecast along the west coast of Florida, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Milton is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves across the peninsula, bringing life-threatening winds inland. Preparations for extended power outages and protection of life and property should be completed urgently.
- Heavy rainfall through Thursday poses a significant risk of catastrophic flash flooding and urban flooding across the Florida Peninsula. Combined coastal and inland flooding will heighten the risk, with moderate to major river flooding expected.
- Over 1 million people from 11 Florida counties were placed under mandatory evacuation orders as of Tuesday afternoon, October 8.
Hurricane “Milton” continues its course over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 5 storm, maintaining catastrophic strength as it approaches the Florida Gulf Coast. The storm is forecast to make landfall late tonight or early Thursday morning (LT), posing a severe threat to the region with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph).
As of 09:00 UTC (04:00 CDT), the eye of Hurricane “Milton” is located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 85.4°W, approximately 485 km (300 miles) southwest of Tampa, Florida, and 255 km (160 miles) west of the Dry Tortugas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The storm is advancing northeast at 22 km/h (14 mph), with a gradual increase in speed expected over the next 24 hours. On its current track, Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico throughout today, making landfall tonight along Florida’s west-central coast, and moving off the east coast by Thursday afternoon.
Officials warned debris left over by Hurricane “Helene” at the end of September could become flying projectiles under very powerful winds produced by Milton, adding to the extreme danger posed by massive storm surges and very heavy rain.
More than 1 million people were ordered to evacuate no later than 19:00 LT on Tuesday evening, October 8.
A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect for the west coast of Florida, extending from Flamingo north to Yankeetown, including areas such as Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Additionally, a storm surge warning is active from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, covering the St. Johns River region.
A Hurricane Warning is in place for Florida’s west coast, spanning from Bonita Beach north to the Suwannee River, including the Tampa Bay area. On the east coast, the warning extends from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for regions north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, indicating the possibility of dangerous flooding in those areas.
A Hurricane Watch covers the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, and stretches along Florida’s west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach. It also applies to the east coast from north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line.
A Tropical Storm Warning is active for the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, as well as for Lake Okeechobee. Other areas under this warning include the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach, and from north of Suwannee River to Indian Pass. On the east coast, the warning applies to regions south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo, and north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, up to the Savannah River. Parts of the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini, are also under this warning.
Residents in the impacted regions are strongly urged to follow evacuation orders, as the combination of storm surge, destructive winds, and extreme rainfall poses significant risks.
The NHC warns that storm surges could reach 4.5 m (15 feet) in some areas, depending on local geography and the timing of the storm relative to high tides.
Key affected areas include:
- Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL: 3 – 4.5 m (10 – 15 feet)
- Tampa Bay: 3 – 4.5 m (10 – 15 feet)
- Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL: 2.5 – 4 m (8 – 12 feet)
- Charlotte Harbor: 2.5 – 4 m (8 – 12 feet)
Even locations not directly in the storm’s path, such as areas from Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA, are expected to see surges of up to 1.5 m (5 feet). These surges are highly variable, depending on the timing relative to high tide, and will be accompanied by dangerous waves, and worsening coastal flooding.
Milton’s approach will bring 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) of rainfall to central and northern Florida, with isolated totals reaching up to 450 mm (18 inches). Heavy rain is expected to cause significant flooding, especially in low-lying urban areas and along major rivers. Some areas are at risk of catastrophic flash flooding, while moderate to major river flooding is forecast for parts of the peninsula.
The heaviest rain is expected from central Florida up to the northern portions of the state, with rainfall possibly spreading into southern Georgia and the Carolinas as the storm moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km (30 miles) from the center of Milton, while tropical-storm-force winds reach as far as 205 km (125 miles) from the eye. Wind speeds will likely increase as the storm approaches land, potentially causing widespread structural damage, power outages, and uprooted trees in the warning areas.
These conditions are expected to arrive in western Florida today, spreading across the state throughout the night and into Thursday.
In addition to hurricane-force winds, the system is likely to spawn tornadoes, particularly in central and southern Florida. Tornadoes may develop throughout the day and tonight, compounding the risks posed by the storm.
Dangerous swells generated by Milton will affect much of the Gulf Coast over the next two days, contributing to life-threatening rip currents and hazardous surf. Residents along the coastline are advised to avoid beaches and follow guidance from local authorities.
With the landfall imminent, the National Weather Service and local authorities are urging residents in the affected areas to complete their preparations immediately and evacuate if ordered. Life-threatening conditions, particularly due to storm surge and high winds, are expected in coastal regions.
References:
1 Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 – NWS/NHC – Issued at 09:00 UTC on October 9, 2024
2 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17 – NWS/NHC – Issued at 09:00 UTC on October 9, 2024
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
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