Subtropical cyclone forming east of Bermuda, Atlantic Ocean
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 800 km (500 miles) ENE of Bermuda at 06:00 UTC on May 21 is producing winds to storm force and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a high potential for this LPA to become the first subtropical storm (Ana) of the 2021 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.
The low is expected to move WSW over warmer waters during the next day or so, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone later today or on Saturday, May 22 near or to the northeast of Bermuda, forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is high — 80%.
Thereafter, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday, May 23.
The Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) has issued a Tropical Storm Watch on May 20.
"A non-tropical low pressure to the northeast is expected to drift towards the area tomorrow and through the weekend," BWS said. "We continue to monitor this low for possible subtropical development."
"Regardless of development, the low will maintain cloudier skies and bring strong winds from early tomorrow (Friday), and periods of wet weather mainly from tomorrow afternoon through Saturday."
"A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect to cover the potential for sustained winds reaching 65 km/h (40 mph) and seas exceeding 3.6 m (12 feet) offshore on Friday. Once formal advisories begin, BWS will start issuing Tropical Update Bulletins with more details about track and intensity."
Image credit: NOAA/GOES-16, RAMMB/CIRA, TW. Acquired at 20:10 UTC on May 20, 2021.
Meanwhile, a surface trough and a mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, May 21.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low — 20%.
Featured image credit: NOAA/GOES-16, RAMMB/CIRA, TW. Acquired at 07:30 UTC on May 21, 2021.
If you value what we do here, create your ad-free account and support our journalism.
Your support makes a difference
Dear valued reader,
We hope that our website has been a valuable resource for you.
The reality is that it takes a lot of time, effort, and resources to maintain and grow this website. We rely on the support of readers like you to keep providing high-quality content.
If you have found our website to be helpful, please consider making a contribution to help us continue to bring you the information you need. Your support means the world to us and helps us to keep doing what we love.
Support us by choosing your support level – Silver, Gold or Platinum. Other support options include Patreon pledges and sending us a one-off payment using PayPal.
Thank you for your consideration. Your support is greatly appreciated.
Commenting rules and guidelines
We value the thoughts and opinions of our readers and welcome healthy discussions on our website. In order to maintain a respectful and positive community, we ask that all commenters follow these rules:
We reserve the right to remove any comments that violate these rules. By commenting on our website, you agree to abide by these guidelines. Thank you for helping to create a positive and welcoming environment for all.