Tropical Storm Cristobal formed WSW of the Azores on August 12, becoming the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. At 15:00 UTC on August 12, 2026, the National Hurricane Center reported maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), with no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
El Niño is present and strengthening across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed on August 3, 2027.Meanwhile its July strength outlook gives an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026. WMO’s August–October 2026 outlook also shows associated shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall probabilities across multiple regions.NOAA maintains an El Niño Advisory.
A rare Atlantic Niña has developed across the equatorial Atlantic while El Niño continues strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Although Atlantic Niña events are relatively uncommon, forecasters say the developing pattern could reinforce atmospheric conditions that typically suppress tropical cyclone formation across the Atlantic basin.
El Niño has strengthened significantly over the past month and is expected to intensify through the end of 2026, with NOAA forecasters warning there is now an 81% chance the climate pattern could rank among the strongest El Niño events observed since records began in 1950.
A strengthening El Niño and a persistent cool sea-surface-temperature anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic, associated with the feature known in climate research as the North Atlantic warming hole, may influence large-scale atmospheric circulation during early Winter 2026–27 across North America and Europe, according to seasonal forecast guidance from major international forecasting centers.
Peru has declared a 60-day state of emergency in 796 districts across 22 departments and the Constitutional Province of Callao on July 2, 2026, because of the imminent threat of intense rainfall associated with the 2026–2027 El Niño phenomenon, activating nationwide preparedness and disaster risk reduction measures.
El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11, 2026, after oceanic and atmospheric conditions shifted into an El Niño pattern.
Spain recorded 101 heat-related deaths during May 2026, making it the deadliest May since national monitoring began in 2015, while health authorities warned that heat extremes are arriving earlier in the year and increasing mortality risks across the country.
NOAA and long-range atmospheric forecast models are increasingly showing early El Niño-related circulation signals over North America as forecasters continue monitoring a developing transition away from ENSO-neutral conditions during summer 2026.
La Niña conditions persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during February 2026, but forecasters expect the pattern to transition to ENSO-neutral within the next month. The Climate Prediction Center said on March 12, 2026, that El Niño is likely to emerge during June–August 2026 with a probability of 62% and could persist through at least the end of the year.
