Astronomers have ruled out a potential Moon impact by asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 after precise measurements from the James Webb Space Telescope refined the object’s orbit. The asteroid, once briefly considered among the most closely monitored impact risks discovered in the past two decades, will instead pass safely beyond 20 000 km (12 400 miles) from the Moon.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4 % chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, potentially ejecting up to 100 million kg of lunar debris into space, with as much as 10 % of it reaching Earth and producing a rare, slow-moving meteor storm.
Two studies published in Nature Communications explore and provide insights into efficient planetary defense strategies. These studies came out during the period when 2024 YR4 made headlines with its potential for impact in 2032. The results provide valuable insights into how to create better planetary defense procedures based on the behavior of asteroid Dimorphos ejecta produced by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact risk has dropped to 0.0017%, placing it a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. There remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is making headlines again after new calculations revealed that the asteroid now has an impact probability to Earth of just 0.16% in 2032.
The impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 increased from 1.8% to 2.6% (1 in 38) with new trajectory simulations and refined calculations. While the increase remains within a low-risk range, continued monitoring and additional observations will be necessary to further refine impact predictions.
The impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 increased from 1.2% to 1.8% on February 6, 2025, following new trajectory simulations and refined calculations. While the increase remains within a low-risk range, continued monitoring and additional observations will be necessary to further refine impact predictions.
A newly discovered asteroid designated 2024 YR4 has activated global planetary defense protocols after initial observations indicated a small but notable chance of impact in seven years. International monitoring networks have begun refining its trajectory, while space agencies evaluate potential response strategies, including possible deflection measures.
A newly discovered near-Earth asteroid designated 2024 YR4 has been identified with a more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Astronomers are actively refining its orbit and the potential risk remains under evaluation.
