La Niña Watch issued with 71% probability for October–December 2025
A La Niña Watch was issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on September 11, 2025, with a 71% probability of La Niña forming in October–December 2025. Chances decline to 54% for December 2025–February 2026.
Sea surface temperature anomalies for September 10, 2025. Credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Weather Service (NWS), confirmed that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in August 2025.
Near- to below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with weekly Niño SST index values ranging from −0.4°C (−0.7°F) to −0.2°C (−0.4°F) . Subsurface temperature anomalies, averaged from 180°–100°W, strengthened during August, with below-average values extending from the surface to depths of 200 m (656 feet) in the central and eastern Pacific.
Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level anomalies were westerly over the western and eastern sectors. Convection was enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed near the Date Line, consistent with emerging La Niña–like conditions.
Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC- Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC
- Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC
- Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC
- Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC
While the International Research Institute (IRI) multi-model forecast slightly favors ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2025–26, all models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict La Niña development and persistence through the season.
Based on current observations and model trends, CPC projects a 71% chance of La Niña developing during October–December 2025. Probabilities decrease to 54% for December 2025–February 2026, indicating a reduced likelihood of La Niña persistence into late winter.
La Niña events are typically associated with strengthened easterly trade winds and cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The changes alter global atmospheric circulation, often leading to wetter conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern South America, and drier conditions across the southern United States and parts of South America.
La Niña can also influence tropical cyclone activity, enhancing the Atlantic hurricane season while reducing storm formation in the central and eastern Pacific.
References:
1 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion – NOAA/CPC/NCEP/NWS – September 11, 2025
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