Major X4.5 solar flare erupts from AR 3825, producing Earth-directed CME
A major solar flare measuring X4.5 erupted from Active Region 3825 at 15:29 UTC on September 14, 2024. The event started at 15:13 and ended at 15:47 UTC. This is the fifth strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.
Image credit: NASA SDO/AIA 304, Helioviewer, The Watchers
- A major X4.5 solar flare erupted from the newly-numbered Active Region 3825, producing a fast-moving CME with an Earth-directed component.
- This is the fifth strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 and the second X-class solar flare this week.
- The CME is expected to arrive at Earth around midday UTC on September 16. Additionally, a CME produced by an earlier M1.0 flare on September 14 also appears to be Earth-bound, though it will likely be overtaken by the X4.5 CME as they move toward Earth.
A major solar flare measuring X4.5 erupted on September 14, producing a large coronal mass ejection (CME).
A 10cm Radio Burst lasting 38 minutes and with a peak flux of 1 000 sfu was associated with this event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
While the location of this region still doesn’t favor Earth-directed CMEs, we’ll have to wait for coronagraph imagery to confirm the trajectory and potential impacts.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over South America at the time of the flare.
This region produced an impulsive X1.3 solar flare while still beyond the SE limb on Thursday, September 12:
This is the fifth strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 – sharing the place with X4.52 produced on May 6, 2024.
The four stronger flares were an X5 on December 31, 2023, X5.89 on May 11, 2024, X6.3 on February 22, 2024, and X8.79 on May 14, 2024.
Update
08:54 UTC, September 15
Analysis of the fast-moving CME from the X4.5 flare shows an Earth-directed component, expected to arrive around midday UTC on September 16. Additionally, a CME produced by an earlier M1.0 flare on September 14 also appears to be Earth-bound, though it will likely be overtaken by the X4.5 CME as they move toward Earth.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are anticipated on September 15, due to residual influences from the CME on September 11.
By midday UTC on September 16, the arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), in combination with the CMEs from September 13 and 14, is expected to elevate conditions to G3 – Strong storm levels.
These combined CME and CH effects are likely to persist into September 17, with G2 – moderate geomagnetic storm conditions anticipated.
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
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