Heavy rains soak Sahara Desert as northward ITCZ shift alters African weather patterns

ByRishav Kothari
gfs rainfall accumulation september 6 to 20 2024 n africa

Featured image: Total Accumulated Precipitation (GFS) - September 9 - 20, 2024. Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Heavy rainfall across the Sahara Desert, linked to a shift in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), is leading to extraordinary weather patterns across Africa. Forecast models suggest that the region may see several years’ worth of rain over the coming weeks making 2024 the wettest year for the Sahara Desert, with Mauritania and Mali among the hardest-hit areas.

The Sahara Desert has been experiencing unusually heavy rains this year, which have been linked to the northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Currently, Mali and Mauritania are among the regions receiving above-average rainfall due to a tropical wave passing over the area.

The tropical wave is forecast to move across northern Mauritania and curve into western and northern Algeria.

Forecast models, such as those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), had shown significant precipitation anomalies over the Sahara, while Global Forecast System (GFS) models in August 2024 suggested that some regions could receive several years’ worth of rainfall between August 27 and September 11.

The ECMWF extended precipitation anomaly for early September also showed a large portion of the Sahara Desert under significant rainfall anomalies, forecasting 2024 to be the wettest year for the Sahara Desert since 1994.

The shift in the ITCZ could also be impacting the Atlantic hurricane season. The northward shift could cause strong thunderstorm systems to move into the Atlantic Ocean at higher latitudes over colder waters, which might explain why fewer tropical systems are intensifying as they move out of Africa.

The ITCZ shift, along with the record-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has altered weather patterns across the Atlantic and Africa. This shift has led to increased rainfall in regions such as the Sahel and the Sahara Desert, where Mali and Mauritania are located, and has resulted in fewer hurricanes.

If the ITCZ shifts back to its normal position, there could be an increase in tropical wave activity and more storm formation.

References:

1 Rare rain event over the Sahara, the northward shift of ITCZ could bring years’ worth of rainfall in 2 weeks – The Watchers – August 27, 2024

Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.

Share:

Published in the last 24 hours

  1. Kīlauea's north vent threw lava about 660 feet (200 m) high for six hours on 5 November 2026; the summit is now reinflating, with the next episode forecast for 16 to 21 November. Epicenter
  2. A crack up to 6 m (20 ft) wide is splitting the summit of the Hochvogel in the Allgäu Alps; 12 years of measurements now put the loose block at about 400,000 cubic metres, half the peak. Epicenter
  3. Hayli Gubbi in Ethiopia's Afar erupted on 23 November 2025, its first historically documented eruption; a year later scientists have traced it to magma from Erta Ale that travelled more than 30 km underground. Epicenter
  4. Typhoon Cempaka spun up over the western North Pacific on 7 November 2026; it is now the 32nd typhoon of the year, more than any year this century, one past the 31 counted in 2013. Epicenter

From around the web