Heavy rains soak Sahara Desert as northward ITCZ shift alters African weather patterns
Featured image: Total Accumulated Precipitation (GFS) - September 9 - 20, 2024. Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Heavy rainfall across the Sahara Desert, linked to a shift in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), is leading to extraordinary weather patterns across Africa. Forecast models suggest that the region may see several years’ worth of rain over the coming weeks making 2024 the wettest year for the Sahara Desert, with Mauritania and Mali among the hardest-hit areas.
The Sahara Desert has been experiencing unusually heavy rains this year, which have been linked to the northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Currently, Mali and Mauritania are among the regions receiving above-average rainfall due to a tropical wave passing over the area.
The tropical wave is forecast to move across northern Mauritania and curve into western and northern Algeria.
Forecast models, such as those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), had shown significant precipitation anomalies over the Sahara, while Global Forecast System (GFS) models in August 2024 suggested that some regions could receive several years’ worth of rainfall between August 27 and September 11.
This is just beyond insane. A tropical wave is dumping serious rainfall on Mali, a desert country in North Africa. In the coming days, its path will travel across northern Mauritania and curve into western and northern Algeria. The Sahara Desert is experiencing some historic rain pic.twitter.com/yrvCAJrteX
— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) September 5, 2024
The ECMWF extended precipitation anomaly for early September also showed a large portion of the Sahara Desert under significant rainfall anomalies, forecasting 2024 to be the wettest year for the Sahara Desert since 1994.
The shift in the ITCZ could also be impacting the Atlantic hurricane season. The northward shift could cause strong thunderstorm systems to move into the Atlantic Ocean at higher latitudes over colder waters, which might explain why fewer tropical systems are intensifying as they move out of Africa.
Heavy rain is moving across… the Sahara Desert?
— Zoom Earth (@zoom_earth) September 5, 2024
Mali and Mauritania are experiencing unusually high levels of rainfall right now.
This may be one reason why the Atlantic has had so few hurricanes so far. Tropical waves, which often develop into hurricanes, have not been… pic.twitter.com/iyAxYFJn3W
The ITCZ shift, along with the record-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has altered weather patterns across the Atlantic and Africa. This shift has led to increased rainfall in regions such as the Sahel and the Sahara Desert, where Mali and Mauritania are located, and has resulted in fewer hurricanes.
If the ITCZ shifts back to its normal position, there could be an increase in tropical wave activity and more storm formation.
References:
1 Rare rain event over the Sahara, the northward shift of ITCZ could bring years’ worth of rainfall in 2 weeks – The Watchers – August 27, 2024
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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