Hurricane “Orlene” to make landfall over southwestern Mexico on October 3

Hurricane "Orlene" at 15:40 UTC on October 2, 2022. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

Orlene rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane over the past two days and is now weakening as it approaches southwestern Mexico. Weakening is expected to continue during the next day or so, however, Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico on October 3.

  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning today.
  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
  • Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.

At 15:00 UTC on October 2, 2022, the center of Hurricane “Orlene” was located about 155 km (95 miles) SW of Cabo Corrientes and 215 km (135 miles) SSW of Las Islas Marias, Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).1

The system had maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (125 mph) and minimum central pressure of 953 hPa. It was moving N at 13 km/h (8 mph). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today.

hurricane orlene nhc fcst 15z october 2 2022
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias; the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas; the coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.

On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning (LT), October 3, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday or Monday night.

Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico.

Hurricane "Orlene" at 15:40 UTC on October 2, 2022. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
Hurricane “Orlene” at 15:40 UTC on October 2, 2022. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

References:

1 Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 16 – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL – 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Featured image: Hurricane “Orlene” at 15:40 UTC on October 2, 2022. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

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