CME produced by long duration C5.6 solar flare expected to reach Earth early on July 23

c5-6 solar flare july 21 2022

A long-duration C5.6 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3060 at 01:11 UTC on July 21, 2022, producing a faint full halo coronal mass ejection (CME).

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 063 km/s was detected at 01:21 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

In addition, a Type IV Radio Emission was also associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

The event generated a faint full halo CME which is estimated to reach our planet early on July 23, sparking minor to moderate geomagnetic storm.1

Note: Faint full halo CME is hard to see due to impressive CME event off the Sun’s east limb

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in 24 hours to 17:04 UTC when the Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached.

G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is likely through July 23, with a CME produced on July 152 and a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences on July 21 and 22, as well as the anticipated arrival of the aforementioned CME on July 23.

There is a chance for G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm levels being reached all three days due to the combined CME and CH HSS effects.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through July 23.

sunspots on july 21 2022 sdo hmi

References:

1 Forecast Discussion – Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center – Issued: 2022 Jul 21 1230 UTC

2 G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm watch in effect – The Watchers – July 20, 2022

Featured image credit: NASA SDO/AIA 304

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