G2 geomagnetic storm in progress, G3 - Strong watch in effect for October 14

G2 geomagnetic storm in progress, G3 - Strong watch in effect for October 14

A filament in Sun's northeast quadrant erupted between 15:00 and 17:00 UTC on Saturday, October 8, 2016, producing an asymmetric, partial-halo CME. The CME, although faint, was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning 00:48 UTC on October 9.

It reached ACE and DSCOVR satellites located at L1 point at 21:21 UTC on Wednesday, October 12 and hit Earth's magnetic field at 22:14 UTC.

Solar wind conditions became more enhanced after 05:30 UTC on Thursday, October 13 as Total field increased from near 5 nT to 20 nT.

Estimated planetary k index - 3 days by 21:30 UTC on October 13, 2016

Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm) threshold was first reached at 08:15 UTC.

K-index of 6 (G2 - Moderate) threshold was reached at 17:59 UTC and these levels are expected to persist through the rest the UTC day and into October 15.

Aurora forecast ovation prime model run at 22:41 UTC on October 13, 2016

Credit: NOAA/SWPC

A G3 - Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for October 14. 

Power system voltage irregularities are possible and false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices under G3 conditions. Spacecraft systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

This will not be the end of geomagnetic storming for the week as a co-rotating interaction region ahead of coronal hole high speed stream is expected to start affecting our planet on Saturday, October 15.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 219
Issue Time: 2016 Oct 12 2227 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2016 Oct
12 2214 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: FRD

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1024
Issue Time: 2016 Oct 13 0815 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2016 Oct 13 0815 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1025
Issue Time: 2016 Oct 13 1307 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2016 Oct
13 1306 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 414
Issue Time: 2016 Oct 13 1758 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2016 Oct
13 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

***

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 60
Issue Time: 2016 Oct 13 1329 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 14:  G3 (Strong)   Oct 15:  G1 (Minor)   Oct 16:  None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Featured image credit: NOAA/SWPC

Comments

anaemai 1 month ago

hello I have had several visions of meteorites coming from the keeper belt one was bound for Croatia and several to the uk this was last night early am today

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