Rising threat of solar eruptions as new active regions rotate into Earth view

threat-of-solar-flares-as-new-active-regions-rotate-into-earth-view

Four new active regions were numbered in the past two days – 1895, 1896, 1897 and old Sunspot 1875 which was just numbered as 1899.

Sunspot 1897 already produced a few C-class flares and grew in size and complexity. This active region could produce strong flares in the coming days. Old Sunspot 1875 remained active during it's transition over farside of the Sun and it just emerged at eastern limb. This active region unleashed several strong flares in October and is about to continue it's rotation. 

Sunspot 1890 is decaying but it still has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. However, any ejected material should be directed away from our planet given the position of this active region as it rotates towards western limb.

SDO's HMI Intensity shows new sunspots at the eastern limb on November 12, 2013 (Credit: Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

Other sunspots remained stable. There are currently 7 numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-class flares and a 35% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, it seems that the CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 08:48 UTC on November 12, is possibly Earth-oriented.

Two CME's propelled into space by the X-class flares of November 8 and 10 have merged into a single cloud on it's way toward our planet. It could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on November 13, producing minor geomagnetic storms. 

Featured image: SDO/HMI Intensitigram November 13, 2013 (Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

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One Comment

  1. it is 1897 and 1895 which , in my opinion, are a threat… if they connect magnetically…. with the four approaching comets , and release a srtong cme earth directed, it can change the world as we know it.

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