An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the system over the eastern Caribbean found well-defined, closed, low-level circulation and tropical storm force winds Monday evening. As a result, Tropical Storm Emily has now officially formed.
Emily is already producing tropical storm-force winds across the Windward Islands and tropical storm conditions will affect Puerto Rico and the Dominican republic Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rainfall of upwards of 4 inches across the northern Windward and Leeward islands is likely overnight.
Emily will continue on a west-northwest track around the southern periphery of an upper-level ridge over the next 24 to 48 hours. This will take the center of Emily over Hispaniola sometime Wednesday afternoon bringing with it heavy, flooding rains and the possibility of mudslides.
The high mountains of Hispaniola will greatly disrupt the circulation of Emily with weakening expected later Wednesday. Some re-intensification is expected Thursday and Friday as Emily’s circulation emerges back over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic, somewhere in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Just how much the mountains of Hispaniola disrupt the circulation is questionable, but could have a big impact on how quickly Emily can regain strength. If the circulation remains in tact, there is a possibility Emily could reach hurricane strength later Friday or Saturday. By this time, Emily could be very close to southern Florida or the northern Bahamas. (AccuWeather)
- NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page
- Tropical RAMSDIS Online (CSU)
- NCEP Ensemble Products
- NCEP/EMC Cyclone Tracks Page
- UW-CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)
- Official NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart (requires Adobe Reader)
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