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Minor G1 Geomagnetic storm in progress

minor-g1-geomagnetic-storm-in-progress

The Bz continues to tilt south and a minor G1 Geomagnetic Storm (Kp=5) is now in progress. Be on the lookout for Aurora at very high latitudes. The Bz Component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this may help trigger Aurora at very high latitudes. An increase in activity is generated by a glancing blow from a CME observed on 08 June.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Solar activity is low on Monday morning however that could change at any time with the expansion of several sunspots. Region 1504 in the southeast quadrant looks to be the current sunspot of interest and is expanding rapidly. There will be a chance for an M-Class flare.  NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-class solar flares today as the sunspot’s magnetic field shifts and destabilizes.

As it pops and crackles with low-level solar flares, sunspot AR1504 is rapidly evolving. During the past 24 hours the active region has shape-shifted from an irregular dumbbell into a dark ring of magnetism wide enough to circumscribe a half-dozen planet Earths. Eruptions later this week could be geoeffective as the sunspot turns to face Earth. There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the Sun.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (Issued at 2200UTC on 11 Jun 2012)

Region 1507 (S26E17) was the most active region of the period, producing several C-flares. The largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z. Region 1504 (S17E40) is the largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare. Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period. Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely with Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.

The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June). An increase in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME observed on 08 June. Activity is expected to return to quiet partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside. Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).

 

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind
speed: 416.6 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 128 sfu

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal10.5 nT
Bz9.8 nT south 

Sources: SolarHam, NOAA/SWPC, SpaceWeather

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