A magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR1450 erupted on April 2nd, hurling a faint CME in the direction of Earth. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected to be geoeffective. However, a weak impact is expected sometime on April 4th as it can be seen on CME forecast. NOAA forecasters estimate a ~25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives.
Solar activity is currently very low. Sunspot 1450 did form some new spots towards the center of the group, but remains stable. All other regions have been quiet.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (03 Apr 2012)
Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06 April).
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April) due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04 April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06 April) is expected to return to quiet levels.
Five CMEs in five days
The Sun blew out at least five halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and several others over a five-day period (Mar. 24-29, 2012). SOHO’s C3 coronagraph observed the action. Halo CMEs are ejections whose leading edge appears to spread out from the Sun in a kind of circle (i.e., halo), which indicates that the expanding cloud of particles is heading either directly towards or away from Earth. Most of the events were from the far side of the Sun, except for the two close together early on Mar. 27. This dynamic level of activity is in line with expectations that we are approaching solar maximum.
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