Hurricane “Beryl” forecast to make landfall in Texas, U.S.

Tropical Storm “Beryl” is anticipated to re-strengthen again and is forecast to become a hurricane again before making landfall in Texas, U.S. on Monday, July 8, 2024.

Hurricane “Beryl” — the first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, wreaked havoc across several Caribbean islands in early July. The storm began as a tropical wave on June 25, intensifying to a tropical depression by June 28, and officially becoming Tropical Storm “Beryl” on the same day. On June 29, it reached hurricane status, making it the earliest Category 4 hurricane in recorded history by June 30.

Beryl made landfall on July 1 in Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines as a Category 4 hurricane. The impact was catastrophic, with six confirmed deaths across the two nations. In Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the Prime Minister reported that 90% of houses on Union Island were severely damaged or destroyed. The UN OCHA estimated that 200 000 people were affected in both countries, representing 100% of the population.

In Grenada, the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique bore the brunt of the damage. Tevin Andrews, a minister of these islands, told UN officials they need anything that would allow a human being to survive. Simon Springett, the top U.N. humanitarian official for the eastern Caribbean and Barbados, reported that 95% of housing was destroyed along with local businesses and income-generating activities.

Barbados was also hit on July 1, with the Barbados Red Cross reporting 208 200 people affected, representing almost 74% of the total population. Damage to homes, boats, and the fishing industry was reported.

As Beryl moved towards Jamaica, it turned into a Category 5 hurricane — the strongest Caribbean hurricane this early in the calendar year on record.

The storm caused extensive damage, including fallen trees blocking roads, landslides, widespread power outages, and structural damage. Dennis Zulu, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Jamaica and the Bahamas, reported that 70% of the population in hard-hit areas lost their water supply and 40% were without electricity.

The media reports 10 fatalities as of July 5: three in Grenada, three in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, three across Venezuela – where five people are still missing – and two in Jamaica. Across the four countries included in the emergency appeal, an estimated 1.28 million people were affected by Beryl.

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U.N. has released emergency funds to support relief efforts: $1.5 million split between Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and $2.5 million for Jamaica. A logistics hub has been established in Barbados to coordinate aid distribution.

Beryl made landfall in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula at 11:05 UTC on July 5, with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) and minimum central pressure of 975 hPa. The full extent of the damage is still being assessed, with more precise figures expected in the coming days.

Beryl, now a tropical storm, is moving into the southcentral Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, July 6, and is expected to intensify this weekend as it moves toward the south Texas coast.

At 06:00 UTC on July 6, the center of Tropical Storm “Beryl” was located about 930 km (580 miles) SE of Corpus Christi, Texas. The system had maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and minimum central pressure of 1 001 hPa, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

It was moving WNW at 20 km/h (13 mph). A turn to the northwest is expected today, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday, July 7 (LT).

Strengthening is anticipated later this weekend, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again before it reaches the U.S. coast.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to San Luis Pass; and for the northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grand. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to High Island.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf coast of northeastern Mexico and Texas by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night.

The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline, NHC said. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• Baffin Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX: 0.9 – 1.5 m (3 – 5 feet)
• Corpus Christi Bay: 0.9 – 1.5 m (3 – 5 feet)
• Matagorda Bay: 0.9 – 1.5 m (3 – 5 feet)
• Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX: 0.6 – 1.2 m (2 – 4 feet)
• San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX: 0.6 – 1.2 m (2 – 4 feet)
• Galveston Bay: 0.6 – 1.2 m (2 – 4 feet)

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.

Heavy rainfall of 125 – 250 mm (5 – 10 inches) with localized amounts of 380 mm (15 inches) is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall is likely to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.

Through this morning, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 100 – 150 mm (4 – 6 inches), with localized amounts of 250 mm (10 inches), across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated.

Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by this morning. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

References:

¹ UNICEF Eastern Caribbean Area Office Situation Report No. 2 (Hurricane Beryl) – ReliefWeb – July 5, 2024

² Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados and Jamaica | Hurricane Beryl – Emergency Appeal No. MDRS2001 – ReliefWeb -July 6, 2024

³ Grenada minister tells UN: hurricane-devastated Islands need anything for `a human being to survive’- Hindustan Times – July 6, 2024

Rishav Kothari

I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.

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