Mocha forecast to hit Bangladesh and Myanmar as a very severe cyclonic storm

Tropical Cyclone “Mocha” formed on May 11, 2023, as the first named storm of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The system is expected to make landfall along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border on May 14 as a very severe cyclonic storm.

At 06:00 UTC on May 11, Mocha had a maximum sustained surface wind speed between 75 and 85 km/h (47 – 53 mph) with gusts to 95 km/h (59 mph). Its center was located about 510 km (317 miles) W of Port Blair, India, 1 160 km (721 miles) SSW of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, and 1 080 km (671 miles) SSW of Sittwe, Myanmar. The storm was moving NNW at a speed of 8 km/h (5 mph), according to the RSMC New Delhi.

Mocha is very likely to move nearly northwards and gradually intensify into a severe cyclonic storm later in the day and further into a very severe cyclonic storm by the morning of May 12 (LT) over the central Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards with further intensification.

The system is expected to cross the coast of southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar, between Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, close to Sittwe, Myanmar around 12:00 LT on May 14 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150 – 160 km/h (93 – 99 mph) and 175 km/h (109 mph) gusts.

Residents living on the border of Bangladesh and Myanmar are urged to prepare for the landfall — flooding rains, damaging winds, and dangerous storm surges.

There’s a risk of more than 300 mm (11.8 inches) of rainfall in the mountainous areas, potentially causing dangerous flash floods and landslides.

References:

¹ Cyclonic Storm “Mocha” – RSMC New Delhi Bulletin No. 10 (Bob/02/2023)

Featured image: Tropical Cyclone “Mocha” at 09:20 UTC on May 11, 2023. Credit: KMA/GEO-KOMPSAT, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

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