Tropical Cyclone “Remal” to strike India – Bangladesh border region

A deep depression in the Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm “Remal” on May 25, 2024, and is expected to further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm on May 26, bringing significant wind speeds and impacting coastal regions of Bangladesh and West Bengal.

A deep depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal moved northwards at 11 km/h (6.8 mph) in the past six hours, centering about 420 km (261 miles) south of Khepupara, Bangladesh, and Sagar Islands, West Bengal, and 460 km (286 miles) south-southeast of Canning, West Bengal, RSMC New Delhi noted at 09:00 UTC on May 25.

The central pressure at 06:00 UTC was estimated at 993 hPa.

The system intensified into a cyclonic storm over the east-central and north Bay of Bengal at 12:00 UTC on May 25 and is forecast to further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by the morning of May 26.

It is anticipated to make landfall between Sagar Island, West Bengal, and Khepupara, Bangladesh, by midnight on May 26 (LT) as a severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds of 110 – 120 km/h (68 – 75 mph) and gusts up to 135 km/h (84 mph).

INSAT-3D imagery indicates further organized convection with system intensity at T2.0. Scattered low and medium clouds with intense to very intense convection cover the central and south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, including the Gulf of Martaban and Tenasserim coast.

Multisatellite winds reveal stronger winds in the southern and eastern sectors, while total precipitable water imagery shows warm, moist air entering the system’s core.

Wind warning:

• Bay of Bengal: Squally winds of 50 – 60 km/h (31 – 37 mph), gusting to 70 km/h (43 mph), are prevailing over the central Bay of Bengal. Gale winds are expected to reach 60 – 70 km/h (37 – 43 mph), gusting to 80 km/h (50 mph) by 12:00 UTC on May 25. Winds will increase to 70 – 80 km/h (43 – 50 mph), gusting to 90 km/h (56 mph), and later to 100 – 110 km/h (62 – 68 mph), gusting to 120 km/h (75 mph), over the north Bay of Bengal by 00:00 UTC, reaching 110 – 120 km/h (68 – 75 mph), gusting to 135 km/h (84 mph), by 12:00 UTC on May 26. Gale winds of 70 – 80 km/h (43 – 50 mph), gusting to 90 km/h (56 mph), will affect the central Bay of Bengal on May 26 and gradually decrease.
• Coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal: Squally winds of 40 – 50 km/h (25 – 31 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph), will affect the Bangladesh, West Bengal, and north Odisha coasts from 12:00 UTC on May 25. Gale winds of 60 – 70 km/h (37 – 43 mph), gusting to 80 km/h (50 mph), will commence by 00:00 UTC on May 26, escalating to 100 – 120 km/h (62 – 75 mph), gusting to 135 km/h (84 mph), along the Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts from 1200 UTC on May 26 for the subsequent six hours.
• Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata, and East Medinipur districts: Squally winds of 40 – 50 km/h (25 – 31 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph), will begin from 12:00 UTC on May 26. Winds will increase to 70 – 80 km/h (43 – 50 mph), gusting to 90 km/h (56 mph), except in East Medinipur, where winds will reach 60 – 70 km/h (37 – 43 mph), gusting to 80 km/h (50 mph).
• Odisha coasts: Squally winds of 40 – 50 km/h (25 – 31 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph), are expected from 12:00 UTC on May 25 to 00:00 UTC on May 27.
• South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands, and Andaman Sea: Squally winds of 40-50 km/h (25-31 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph), will affect the Andaman Islands and north Andaman Sea for the next 12 hours.
• Northeastern states: Squally winds of 50 – 60 km/h (31 – 37 mph), gusting to 70 km/h (43 mph), are expected over Mizoram, Tripura, and south Manipur on May 26 – 27. Winds of 40 – 50 km/h (25 – 31 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph), are likely over south Assam and Meghalaya on May 27.

Sea condition:

• Central and north Bay of Bengal: Rough to very rough seas will prevail, becoming high on May 25 – 26 and high to very high over the north Bay of Bengal from 12:00 UTC on May 25 until 00:00 UTC on May 27.
• Coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal: Rough to very rough seas from 1200 UTC on May 25, becoming high to very high from 00:00 UTC on May 26 until 00:00 UTC on May 27.
• North Odisha coast: Rough to very rough seas from 12:00 UTC on May 25 to 0000 UTC on May 27.
• Andaman Islands and north Andaman Sea: Rough to very rough seas during the next 12 hours.

Storm surge

A storm surge of about 1 m (3.3 feet) above astronomical tide is expected to inundate low-lying areas of coastal West Bengal, and a surge of 3 – 4 m (10 – 13 feet) above astronomical tide will inundate coastal Bangladesh around the time of landfall.

Fishermen warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea until May 27, the central Bay of Bengal until May 26, and the north Bay of Bengal from May 25 until May 27. Those already at sea are advised to return to the coast.

References:

¹ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 25.05.2024

Featured image credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat, Zoom Earth, The Watchers. Acquired at 12:15 UTC on May 25, 2024