Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya through May 11, according to ICPAC and national meteorological services in the region. Stakeholders are requested to alert their networks and take appropriate measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods.
Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over 200 mm (7.9 inches) -- top 5 to 1% on record -- is expected in parts of central South Sudan (Al Wahdah, northern Jonglei, eastern Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Western Bahr el Ghazal), southern and eastern Ethiopia (Dire Dawa, Harar Jijiga and Degehabur), parts of central Somalia (Madug and Galguduug), and western Kenya (Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet and Narok).
Moderate to heavy rainfall between 50 - 200 mm (2 - 7.9 inches) is expected in western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, much of Uganda, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, central and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan.
Light rainfall of less than 30 mm (1.2 inches) is expected in southern Sudan, parts of eastern Uganda, much of Tanzania, parts of eastern Kenya, south-western and north-eastern Somalia.
This level of exceptionally heavy rainfall often results in extensive floods, landslides and displacement. The affected region should heighten all preparedness measures to mitigate possible adverse impacts.
Somali authorities are already reporting a significant increase in rainfall amounts across many parts of the country over the past 7 days.
The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates a significant spread of the rains to Somaliland and the southern regions, FAO reported on May 4.
River levels along the Shabelle have increased sharply over the last few days following heavy rains within the Ethiopian highlands.
The region's main rainy season lasts from April to June.
Featured image: Total Accumulated Precipitation model for May 4 - 11, 2021. Credit: WXCharts.