Douglas expected to become a hurricane soon, heading toward Hawaii, U.S.

Tropical Storm "Douglas" formed at 07:00 UTC on Tuesday, July 21, 2020, as the fourth named storm of the 2020 Pacific hurricane season. The storm is moving west and is expected to become a hurricane soon. It is expected to continue heading W and weaken back to tropical storm strength over the weekend, just before it reaches Hawaii.

At 09:00 UTC on July 22, the center of Douglas was about 2 270 km (1 410 miles) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California and 3 0200 km (1 875 miles) E of Hilo, Hawaii.

Its maximum sustained winds were 100 km (65 mph) and minimum central pressure 998 hPa. The system was moving W at 22 km/h (14 mph).

A turn toward the west-northwest along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur by late Wednesday.  The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through Saturday.

The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so.

Beyond the next 36 hours, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should cause Douglas to slowly weaken.

The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane sometime on Wednesday, July 22.

Tropical Storm "Douglas" at 10:40 UTC on July 22, 2020. Credit: NOAA/GOES-West, RAMMB/CIRA

Tropical Storm "Douglas" at 10:40 UTC on July 22, 2020. Credit: NOAA/GOES-West, RAMMB/CIRA