Tropical Storm “Filipo” heading toward Mozambique, landfall expected between Sofala and Inhambane

Tropical Storm “Filipo” formed on March 10, 2024, as the 7^th named storm of the 2023/24 South West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Filipo is expected to continue intensifying and make landfall between the extreme south of Sofala Province and Inhambane Province, north of Vilanculos, early morning UTC on March 12 as a severe tropical storm.

Filipo was known as Tropical Disturbance 08 since March 2 and Tropical Depression 08 since March 3 when it passed over the northern tip of Madagascar, dropping heavy rains over the county’s north and Mayotte. The system weakened as it exited into the Mozambique Channel but soon reorganized back to a tropical depression on March 10 and further into a moderate tropical storm — named Filipo.

At 06:00 UTC on March 11, Filipo’s center was located approximately 250 km (155 miles) NE of Inhassoro City, southern Mozambique, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (53 mph).

By 12:00 UTC, Filipo had a maximum average wind speed of 84 km/h (52 mph) and a central pressure of 994 hPa. It was moving WSW toward Mozambique at 11 km/h (7 mph).

According to a bulletin released by RSMC La Reunion at 12:00 UTC today, Filipo is expected to continue tracking WSW over the next 24 hours along the northern edge of the low-troposphere subtropical ridge, which is gradually weakening.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday, March 12 and 13, a turn southwestward then southward should take place on the northwestern edge of the mid-troposphere ridge, which is shifting to the south and then southeast of Madagascar. This should take the system over southern Mozambique, with a landfall expected late overnight.

On Wednesday, the system should move back over the southern Mozambique Channel, heading southeast and accelerating as it interacts with the edge of a mid-latitude trough. It should then evacuate definitively towards the southern latitudes by the second half of the week.

Environmental conditions are improving in the short term, with a weakening shear and strong upper divergence favored by an outflow channel to the southeast of the system.

Filipo should therefore intensify until landfall and reach the severe tropical storm stage, RSMC La Reunion said. Further intensification cannot be ruled out but will depend on the speed of consolidation of the inner core.

As the system emerges south of Mozambique on Wednesday, intensification could resume fairly quickly, in a context of strong upper-level divergence on the edge of a subtropical trough and over warm waters north of 30S. However, this intensification will depend on its organization as it emerges over the sea.

Impacts expected on inhabited lands over the next 72 hours:

Mozambique

• Landfall is expected late tonight between the extreme south of Sofala Province and Inhambane Province, north of Vilanculos.
• Winds: gales are likely to persist well after landing, along the entire southern coastline until Wednesday and the system’s exit. Storm-force winds are possible overnight and tomorrow morning.
• Rainfall: 100 – 200 mm (4 – 8 inches) and locally 300 m (12 inches) over 72 hours, particularly in the provinces of Inhambane and Gaza, and to a lesser extent in neighboring provinces.
• Waves of 6 m (19 feet) are forecast between Monday noon and Tuesday evening.
• Expected surge of around 50 cm to 1 m (1.6 – 3.2 feet) in the southern vicinity of the landing zone.

Eswatini and extreme eastern South Africa

• Heavy rainfall is possible, but highly dependent on the system’s final track. According to the current RSMC forecast, rainfall totals should remain below 100 mm (4 inches), but this will need to be confirmed.

References:

¹ MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) – WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20232024 – RSMC La Reunion – March 11, 2024

Featured image: Tropical Storm “Filipo” at 12:00 UTC on March 11, 2024. Credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers