Geomagnetic storm reaching G3 (Strong) levels in progress, extreme conditions possible

Geomagnetic storm reaching G3 (Strong) levels in progress, extreme conditions possible

During the last 24 hours, solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of background solar wind conditions until 07:45 UTC on August 15, when a sudden impulse occurred due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), SWPC reported at 12:30 UTC on August 15. (See update at the end of the article)

Solar wind speeds jumped from near 350 km/s to near 500 km/s. IMF total field strength jumped from 11 nT to as high as 28 nT, while the maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -20 nT.

Geomagnetic storm reached G1 (Minor) conditions at 11:25, G2 (Moderate) at 11:32 and G3 (Strong) at 11:43 UTC.

Under G3 (Strong) conditions, area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.

Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.

Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

SWPC Alerts:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 211
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 0908 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2015 Aug 15 0745 UTC
Deviation: 36 nT
Station: Niemegk

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1801
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 1106 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2015 Aug 15 1058 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 811
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 1129 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2015 Aug 15 1125 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 350
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 1138 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2015 Aug 15 1132 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 97
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 1147 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2015 Aug 15 1143 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

***

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 54
Issue Time: 2015 Aug 15 1144 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2015 Aug 15 1145 UTC
Valid To: 2015 Aug 15 1400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

***

Update

Forecast Discussion issued by SWPC at 00:30 UTC on August 16, said enhanced conditions starting 07:45 UTC on August 15 indicated the arrival of a partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) produced by the solar filament eruption at 13:32 UTC on August 12. This CME was expected to arrive early August 16.

Featured image: Visible aurora probability at 12:20 UTC on August 15, 2015. Credit: NOAA/SWPC.

Tags: g3 storm

Comments

Mary s 4 years ago

butterflies birds wasps bees rampant (hundreds) many species completely gone august 14-15 my 5 acres in McMinn TN a very few (15) have returned afternoon 8/15
effect of solar flare?

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