Minor CME impact – geomagnetic disturbances possible at high latitudes

minor-cme-impact-underway-geomagnetic-disturbances-possible-at-high-latitudes

A minor CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on October 31, 2012. This CME was generated by solar prominence on October 27/28. A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was detected at 15:39 UTC, indicating that geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead, effecting very high latitudes, at polar regions.

Region 1598 produced a B8 flare at 01:30 UTC. An interesting long filament eruption occurred from 06:40 UTC to 08:55 UTC in the southern solar hemisphere with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees. If activated and erupting, this would potentially become a geoeffective event.

Another filament eruption was recorded yesterday by SDO/AIA, also near the middle of the southern hemisphere. At the time, solar observing data were still offline, so there was no available information about possible Earth-directed CME generated by this event. All coronographs are online again now.

 

 

 

NOAA/SWPC still didn’t issued any geomagnetic or radioblackout alerts. Interplanetary magnetic field is currently tilting north (6.1 nT).

Quiet space weather conditions are expected for several days to come. The solar X-ray output is expected to remain below C-class level, but there is still a chance for a minor C-class flare from the active regions at or near the west limb. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 1% chances of M-class and X-class solar flares in the next 48 hours. The high-energy proton fluxes are also expected to remain below the event threshold.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet today, increasing to a chance for active levels with the arrival of October 27/28 CMEs late in the day. Unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels from CME effects are expected to continue tomorrow.

 

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Oct 31 1539 UTC
Deviation: 13 nT
Station: Boulder

Solar wind
speed: 360.6 km/sec
density: 19.5 protons/cm3

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 108 sfu

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal8.8 nT
Bz6.1 nT north

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