Earth-directed partial halo CME should reach our magnetic field late on October 8

A long duration B7.5 solar flare was observed at 07:30 UTC on October 5. Post eruption loop structures were observed in GOES SXI imagery in the vicinity of Region 1584. A partial halo CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07:30 UTC and STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery at 04:09 UTC with an estimated plane-of-sky speed at 590 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model indicates this Earth-directed CME to become geoeffective late on 08 October.

The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) captured this image of the expanding cloud:

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet for the next two days. Late on October 8, this Earth-directed CME is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods. The CME will deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

All current Earth facing Sunspots remain stable and the chances for moderate solar flares are slim. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 5 % chances of M-class event. Spewing solar wind, a small coronal hole is turning toward Earth.

Currently the Earth is inside a slow (around 300 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude.

The Sun produced four halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in just three days as well as several other eruptions (Sept. 27-29, 2012).

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind
speed: 332.8 km/sec
density: 1.8 protons/cm³

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 106 sfu

Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 6.1 nT
B_z: 0.5 nT north