An M-class solar flare erupted on October 8, 2012 at 11:17 UTC. The event started at 11:05, peaked at 11:17 and ended at 11:23 UTC. The source of this flare is probably a new region on Sun’s northeastern limb rotating into Earth’s view. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed but it is directed to the east and away from Earth. There is 5% chance for another M-class event and 1% chance for an X-class. We’ll most likely see more Earth directed activity in the coming days.
Meanwhile, there is Geomagnetic storming here on Earth caused by incoming CME from October 5 eruption. Solar wind conditions in the wake of the CME are favorable for polar geomagnetic activity. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially during the hours around local midnight.
Latest report for Geomagnetic activity issued at 11:44 UTC states Geomagnetic K-index of 6:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 296
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 08 1144 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Oct 08 1138 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Space weather overview look – SWS
Coronal mass ejection impact forecast
New region rotating into view
An approaching and flare producing region is rotating into view off the Sun’s northeastern limb.
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