Long-duration M9.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3615

A long-duration solar flare measuring M9.4 erupted from Active Region 3615 (beta-gamma-delta) at 21:16 UTC on March 30, 2024. The event started at 21:01 and ended at 22:15 UTC.

There were no radio signatures that would suggest a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the W United States and the Pacific Ocean.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels, with a slight chance (15%) for X-class flares, on March 31 primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615 currently rotating around the W limb. R1 or greater events become unlikely on March 1 and 2 as the few sunspots remaining on the visible disk are relatively simple and stable.

A slight chance for S1 – Minor solar radiation storms will persist through March 31 primarily due to the flare potential and location of Region 3615. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through April 2.

Solar wind enhancements from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) are likely to continue through April 2. Another weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on March 26 is possible on March 31.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated periods of active conditions, over the next three days.

References:

¹ Forecast Discussion – Issued: 2024 Mar 31 0030 UTC – Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Featured image: M9.4 solar flare on March 30, 2024. Credit: NASA SDO/AIA 304, Helioviewer, The Watchers