CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Jan. 7th

cme-might-deliver-a-glancing-blow-to-earths-magnetic-field-on-jan-7th

A magnetic filament in the sun’s northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the CME would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. However, analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab points that CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Jan. 7th.

A filament channel erupted and a prominence lifted off the Sun near Sunspot 1392 on Thursday morning around 12:30 UTC . This event registered as a long duration C2 flare. is seen in the latest STEREO Behind COR2 recorded nice images of thhis Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Most of the blast looks to be directed to the North, however a very small portion may deliver a glancing blow to Earth within 48 hours.

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours with only C-Class activity detected on the Earth facing side of the Sun. The main event on Thursday was a filament eruption near Sunspot 1392 which did produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The new sunspot located to the east of 1392 was numbered 1393 and a very small sunspot looks to be forming just to the northeast of region 1391. Both of these regions are stable. Sunspot 1390 is now rotating onto the western limb and will soon be out of direct Earth view. There will remain the chance for C-Class flares on Friday. (SolarHam)

Even without a CME, auroras are still lighting up the Arctic Circle.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (06 Jan 2012)
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 06/1125Zfrom Region 1392 (N19W32). A new emerging flux region was numberedtoday as Region 1394 (N18E42). Solar activity is expected to be atlow levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the nextthree days (07-09 January).

The geomagnetic field has been predominantly quiet levels for thepast 24 hours. Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACEspacecraft, indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing from around 330 – 450km/s. The geomagnetic field isexpected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (07-08January) as the effects the CH HSS wane. A return to mostly quietlevels is expected on day three (09 January).

Current conditions

Solar wind
speed: 438.3 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2359 UT Jan06
24-hr: C2 1125 UT Jan06

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 141 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal5.8 nT
Bz0.1 nT north 

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