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Expected impact of an incoming solar wind stream


NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic activity today in response to the expected impact of an incoming solar wind stream.

Solar activity is at very low levels and there is currently no chance for strong solar flares on the earth facing side of the Sun. Sunspot 1271 has rotated onto the western limb and out of direct earth view.

At the same time, a new Sunspot rotated into view on the southeast limb and was numbered 1281 on Sunday.

In the latest Lasco C2 movie, you can see a pair of Coronal Mass Ejections blasting away from the northwest limb of the Sun. One of these explosions resembles a light bulb and is pictured below.

New Region 1281 (S21E64) produced occasional optical subflares during the period, two of which were associated with B-class x-ray flares. No significant activity was noted in the remaining spot groups.

A weak Type II radio sweep occurred at 28/0420Z, likely associated with a filament disappearance from beyond the west limb. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period. (SolarHam)

Solar activity is expected to be very low during the period (29 – 31 August) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 August). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected during days 2 – 3 (30 – 31 August). (NOAA SWPC Solar Report)




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EIT 195A EIT 171A EIT 284A



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These GIF movies are courtesy of the LASCO/NRL SOHO team.



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One Comment

  1. David Rogers commented on The Watchers:

    I love your article and this line is worthy of the David Letterman top ten Solar Flare Predictions of the week.

    And the number one Solar Flare prediction is
    “Unfortunatly, none of these explosions are earth directed.”

    I like your angle on solar flares. You must be the beneficiary of a large number of accidental death policies. Keep thinking positive and someday soon we may all get our Halo in Heaven courtesy of the Solar Light Bulb..

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