Tropical Depression Six forms over the North Atlantic, forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Depression Six formed southwest of the Azores on September 19, with one minute-maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph) at 15:00 UTC, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

At 15:00 UTC on September 19, its center was located approximately 845 km (525 miles) southwest of the Azores, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1 009 hPa. The depression was moving northward at 4 km/h (2 mph).

The system was forecast to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening after a brief strengthening period. If it does develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Fay and become the sixth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial intensity forecast placed the cyclone at tropical-storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), by 00:00 UTC on September 20.

The NHC forecast further strengthening to 75 km/h (45 mph) by 00:00 UTC on September 21, with that intensity maintained through 12:00 UTC the same day.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect when the NHC issued its initial advisory, and the agency identified no hazards affecting land. The cyclone is forecast to remain over the open North Atlantic through its expected transition into a post-tropical remnant low on September 22.

The depression was forecast to move generally northeastward during the first 24 to 36 hours following the September 19 advisory, before turning southwest around September 21.

According to the NHC, a trough to the north was expected to weaken the ridge northeast of the cyclone, allowing the initial northeastward movement. The ridge was then forecast to rebuild around 48 hours into the forecast period, redirecting the system southwestward.

The NHC forecast that the cyclone would move into a somewhat more favorable environment between two areas of strong wind shear, allowing a brief period of intensification.

After approximately 36 hours, stronger shear associated with the trough to the north was expected to disrupt the cyclone’s organization and lead to gradual weakening. Vertical wind shear refers to changes in wind speed or direction with height. The official forecast reduced maximum sustained winds to 65 km/h (40 mph) by 00:00 UTC on September 22.

The cyclone was forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 12:00 UTC on September 22, with maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 km/h (35 mph). The NHC expected the remnant circulation to move southwestward on September 23, with sustained winds forecast to drop near 45 km/h (30 mph). Dissipation was forecast by 12:00 UTC on September 24.

The NHC identified uncertainty in the timing of dissipation, with Global Forecast System (GFS) guidance indicating that the cyclone would dissipate around September 22, while European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) guidance retained the system until approximately September 24. Separately, the agency placed its official intensity forecast near the middle of the broader intensity-guidance envelope.

References:

¹ Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 1 – NOAA/NHC – September 19, 2026

² Tropical Depression Six Forecast/Advisory Number 1 – NOAA/NHC – September 19, 2026