Floods in Sahara could profoundly alter weather forecasts in the future
Heavy rainfall on September 6 and 7, 2024, brought more than a year’s worth of precipitation to parts of Morocco, resulting in 11 deaths and 9 missing persons. While the influx of water provided temporary relief by replenishing lakebeds and aquifers, Morocco’s meteorology chief noted that the presence of water in the Sahara could significantly impact future weather forecasts.
Over a year’s worth of rainfall fell on parts of Morocco on September 6 and 7, causing normally arid regions to flood.
The affected areas experienced significant disruptions, with reports of destroyed homes, damage to roads, and issues with electricity and drinking water supplies. The flooding also led to the refilling of dry lakebeds and aquifers, which might temporarily ease water shortages in the region.
Tagounite, near the Algerian border, registered 170 mm (6.7 inches) of precipitation on Saturday, September 7. Marrakech recorded 90 mm (3.54 inches), Asni 83 mm (3.27 inches), and Essaouira 80 mm (3.15 inches).
In the Ouarzazate region, 47 mm (1.85 inches) of rain fell within just three hours.
The region of southern Morocco, including cities such as Marrakech, Essaouira, Ouarzazate, and smaller towns like Tagounite and Asni, experiences relatively low rainfall, particularly in September. For example, Marrakech typically receives around 15 – 20 mm (0.6 – 0.8 inches) of rainfall in September, while Essaouira, being closer to the coast, gets about 10 – 15 mm (0.4 – 0.6 inches). Ouarzazate, which is located in a desert region, averages just 5 – 10 mm (0.2 – 0.4 inches) during the same month.
Annually, the rainfall varies across these areas, with Marrakech receiving approximately 240 – 280 mm (9.5 – 11 inches), Essaouira about 300 – 350 mm (12 – 14 inches), and Ouarzazate only 50 – 100 mm (2 – 4 inches). Towns like Tagounite and Asni, situated near the Sahara and Atlas Mountains, experience similarly low levels of annual precipitation due to their arid surroundings.
Houssine Youabeb, from Morocco’s General Directorate of Meteorology, commented on the recent heavy rainfall, noting that it was the most intense they’ve seen in 30 to 50 years within such a short timeframe.
This unusual precipitation is significant because the Sahara is typically one of the driest regions on Earth.
Morocco’s head of meteorology said the presence of water in the Sahara could profoundly alter weather forecasts in the future.
The sudden presence of water in the Sahara could have a notable impact on weather systems and prediction models, as the additional moisture can influence atmospheric conditions, potentially changing established weather patterns across the region and beyond.
References:
1 Extreme rainfall leads to severe flash floods in Morocco, killing 11 and leaving 9 missing – The Watchers – September 9, 2024
2 Rare flooding hits the Sahara Desert in Morocco – AP – October 8, 2024
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