High levels of low energetic protons are recorded streaming past Earth causing minor S1 solar radiation storm. Proton event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10 pfu. Minor impacts on HF radio are possible around polar regions.
Elevated solar radiation storm levels are generated by an extra-large filament eruption observed late on August 31 on southeastern quadrant, source was sunspot group 1562. Filament eruption generated a bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that appears to be partially Earth-directed. The CACTus software determined the event as a halo CME – Earth directed – with a speed of 520 km/s. It will probably produced glancing blow and wonderful auroras around September 2/3.
Geomagnetic Storm levels are forecast to reach the G1 (Minor) level with a chance for G2 (Moderate) level activity on September 3rd, with arrival of the coronal mass ejection expected early that day. High latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels on September 3. On September 4, activity is expected to decrease to mostly unsettled conditions as CME effects wane.
Growing sunspot 1560 poses a threat for Earth-directed M-flares. Sunspot AR1560 has more than quadrupled in size since August 30th, and now the fast growing active region is directly facing our planet. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar fares during the next 48 hours.
There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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