El Niño forecast to become very strong by late 2026, raising extreme weather risks into 2027
El Niño is forecast to strengthen to very strong intensity during late 2026, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicating an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) separately gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns across many regions, although the severity of impacts varies by location and season.
