Category 4 Hurricane Simon approaches western Mexico with catastrophic wind and storm-surge threat

Simon was centered about 345 km (215 miles) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, and was moving slowly north. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 km (15 miles) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 205 km (125 miles).

Simon’s sustained winds increased from 195 km/h (120 mph) at 03:00 UTC to 220 km/h (140 mph) at 06:00 UTC, 230 km/h (145 mph) at 09:00 UTC and 240 km/h (150 mph) at 12:00 UTC. Winds remained at 240 km/h (150 mph) at 15:00 UTC.

NHC said satellite and microwave imagery suggested that Simon may have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. The hurricane’s pinhole eye became somewhat larger before clouding over again, and its intensity was held at 240 km/h (150 mph) because satellite estimates had changed little since the preceding intermediate advisory.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission was scheduled to investigate Simon during the afternoon of October 10. The mission was expected to provide direct observations of the hurricane’s structure and intensity.

NHC forecast Simon to strengthen briefly to about 250 km/h (155 mph) by 00:00 UTC on October 11 before weakening as the circulation began interacting with Mexico’s mountainous terrain. The agency’s official track brought the hurricane inland over Jalisco within 24–36 hours.

Forecasters stressed that substantial track uncertainty remained. Some forecast models kept Simon just offshore for approximately 48 hours, while others brought it inland within 24–36 hours; an offshore track could allow the hurricane to remain stronger for longer.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marías. A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect east of Punta San Telmo to Lázaro Cárdenas.

Tropical-storm conditions were expected during the afternoon of October 10, followed by hurricane conditions in the southern part of the warning area early October 11 and farther north thereafter. NHC said preparations to protect life and property should be completed during October 10.

NHC said catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm-surge impacts were likely along part of Mexico’s west-central coast. A dangerous storm surge was expected near and east of Simon’s landfall location, accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NHC forecast 250–510 mm (10–20 inches) of rain across portions of southwestern Mexico through October 11, with isolated totals near 760 mm (30 inches) possible in parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. The rainfall was forecast to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain.

Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecast more than 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain in parts of Colima on October 10 and 150–250 mm (5.9–9.8 inches) in coastal and eastern Jalisco and coastal and western Michoacán. It also forecast wind gusts of 120–130 km/h (75–81 mph) and waves of 6–8 m (20–26 feet) along the Jalisco and Colima coasts.

Swells generated by Simon were expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions along portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.

The Government of Colima closed beaches in Tecomán, Armería and Manzanillo because of elevated waves and dangerous currents associated with long-period swell. Authorities also increased preventive patrols in vulnerable coastal, river and stream areas.

The Port of Manzanillo was closed to navigation by small vessels from 18:00 LT on October 9 as a preventive measure.

References:

¹ Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 13 – NOAA/NHC – October 10, 2026

² Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 13 – NOAA/NHC – October 10, 2026

³ General Weather Forecast – SMN – October 10, 2026

⁴ Preventive measures ahead of Simon – Government of the State of Colima – October 9, 2026