Tropical Storm Melissa forms over the Caribbean, forecast to reach hurricane strength

Tropical Storm Melissa formed roughly 482 km (300 miles) south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at 15:00 UTC on Tuesday.

The system is moving westward at 22 km/h (14 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 1 003 hPa. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 km (115 miles) outward from the center.

While the forecast track beyond Thursday, October 23, remains uncertain, the storm is expected to approach the southwestern portions of Haiti and Jamaica later this week, possibly as a hurricane.

“Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the next few days,” NHC forecasters Cangialosi and Bucci said.

“Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain.”

Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall, with a risk of flash floods and landslides, to parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. The Government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island.

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica also issued a Severe Weather Alert on Tuesday, which will remain in effect at least through 06:00 local time on Wednesday, October 22.

Tropical Storm Melissa will produce heavy rainfall across Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday, October 24, with forecast totals of 125–250 mm (5–10 inches). Additional rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the storm’s track and forward speed limits confidence in precise amounts. Significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible in affected areas.

Rainfall accumulations of 25–75 mm (1–3 inches) are expected over Aruba, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica through Friday. Flash and urban flooding remain possible across Puerto Rico during this period.

Swells generated by Melissa are forecast to reach Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next couple of days. Residents should monitor updates from local meteorological offices.

References:

¹ Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1 – NHC – October 21, 2025

Rishav Kothari

I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.

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