Severe drought cuts crop yields by up to 85% in parts of Türkiye

Yield assessments from TZOB indicate that dry-farm cereal producers in provinces such as Konya, Şanlıurfa, and Mardin have recorded the sharpest losses. In Konya, traditional cereal yields have fallen from 7 000–7 500 kg/ha (2 830–3 035  kg/acre) to 4 500–5 000 kg/ha (1 820–2 025 kg/acre).

Even irrigated fields in some areas have experienced major reductions due to water shortages and high temperatures.

The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reported that large parts of Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia, and the Marmara region have been in moderate to extreme drought since late 2024.

Seasonal precipitation from autumn 2024 to early spring 2025 was 30–50% below normal in key breadbasket areas. June 2025 marked the driest June in 54 years in parts of Marmara, with temperature anomalies exceeding +1.5°C (+2.7°F).

The drought was preceded by an extensive frost event in April 2025, which damaged cereals, sunflowers, sugar beet, fruit, and nut crops across 36 provinces.

Combined, the frost and subsequent heat stress are expected to cut Türkiye’s cereal and field crop production by about 5% year-on-year, with larger regional variations.

According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates for marketing year 2025/26, wheat production will total about 18.5–18.6 million tonnes, down 6–7% from the previous year.

Barley output is forecast to fall 11% to about 6.25 million tonnes, while rice is projected down 5% to about 828 000 tonnes. Corn, which is largely irrigated, is expected to rise 12% to around 7.9 million tonnes, assuming irrigation water remains available.

Turkey’s agricultural sector faces structural water management challenges, with about 80% of national water use consumed by agriculture, primarily through inefficient surface irrigation methods that lose 35–60% to evaporation and runoff.

The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) warns that 88% of Türkiye’s land is at risk of desertification under current trends.

In response, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has launched a new Agricultural Production Plan aimed at optimizing crop choices, reducing water-intensive cultivation, and increasing climate resilience.

Reet Kaur

I’m a science journalist and researcher at The Watchers, contributing to the Epicenter edition, where I cover peer-reviewed scientific research and emerging discoveries across Earth and space sciences. With a background in astronomy and a passion for environmental science, I’ve worked in shark and coral conservation in Fiji, conducting reef and shark-behavior research, contributing to mangrove restoration, and earning PADI Open Water and Coral Reef Certifications. I bring a blend of scientific rigor and storytelling to illuminate the discoveries shaping our planet and beyond.

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