Tropical Depression 2 forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression 2 formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 21:00 UTC on June 1, 2023. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast calls for slight strengthening into a tropical storm on June 2 and degeneration into a remnant low on June 3.
NHC began monitoring an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico at 18:00 UTC on May 30 and at 00:00 UTC on June 1 designated it as Invest 91L. Advisories were initiated at 21:00 UTC on June 1.
If TD2 strengthens into a tropical storm it will be named Arlene and become the first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The season officially began on June 1 and will end on November 30, 2023 — these dates historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic.
Historically, ~60% of named storms in the month of June form in the Gulf of Mexico, said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
At 03:00 UTC on June 2, the system had a maximum sustained wind speed of 55 km/h (35 mph). It was located 465 km (290 miles) WNW of Ft. Myers, Florida, and 645 km (400 miles) NNW of the western tip of Cuba.
The system had a minimum central pressure of 1 007 hPa and was moving S at 6 km/h (3 mph).
Some modest strengthening is possible overnight, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday morning (LT), NHC forecasters said at 03:00 UTC. Weakening is expected to begin later on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday.
Rainfall amounts of about 25 to 55 mm (1 to 2 inches) with localized higher amounts up to 125 mm (5 inches) are possible through Saturday, June 3, across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.
While this rainfall is not directly related to Tropical Depression Two, the heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, NHC said.
Featured image: Tropical Depression 2 at 20:30 UTC on June 1, 2023. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
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