Solar activity has been low in last 24 hours, however, that might change today and in the coming days. New Active Region 2051 (S10W44, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) is growing rapidly and is now harboring energy for X-class solar flares. Eruptions from this region would likely be geoeffective in next 2 days.
At 06:08 UTC today this region produced a long-duration C5 solar flare, the largest event in last 24 hours. Region 2052 (S11E42, Dac/beta) exhibited moderate development while the other regions on the disk were stable.
A coronal mass ejection associated with the long-duration C5 flare was observed off the west limb in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 06:12 UTC, but further data is needed to determine if this CME has a partial Earth-directed component.
The estimated planetary K-index at 12:00 UTC today was 1. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the remainder of day, increasing to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions on May 4 and 5 with the anticipated arrival of the April 30 CME.
WSA ENLIL – Solar wind prediction / plasma density. May 3, 2014.
There are currently 5 active sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun. Four active regions, AR 2033, 2037, 2034 and 2036 are due to return in next two days.
Sunspots on May 3, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO / HMI
2047 – Beta-Gamma
2049 – Beta-Gamma
2050 – Alpha
2051 – Beta-Gamma-Delta
2052 – Beta
SWPC forecasters estimate 40% chance of M-class, and 05% chance of X-class solar flares in next 2 days.
Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 304. May 3, 2014 at 06:14 UTC. Edit: The Watchers
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