Increasing threat of strong solar flares, CME hit anticipated


Solar activity has been low in last 24 hours, however, that might change today and in the coming days. New Active Region 2051 (S10W44, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) is growing rapidly and is now harboring energy for X-class solar flares. Eruptions from this region would likely be geoeffective in next 2 days.

At 06:08 UTC today this region produced a long-duration C5 solar flare, the largest event in last 24 hours. Region 2052 (S11E42, Dac/beta) exhibited moderate development while the other regions on the disk were stable.

A coronal mass ejection associated with the long-duration C5 flare was observed off the west limb in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 06:12 UTC, but further data is needed to determine if this CME has a partial Earth-directed component.

The estimated planetary K-index at 12:00 UTC today was 1. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the remainder of day, increasing to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions on May 4 and 5 with the anticipated arrival of the April 30 CME.

WSA ENLIL – Solar wind prediction / plasma density. May 3, 2014.


There are currently 5 active sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun. Four active regions, AR 2033, 2037, 2034 and 2036 are due to return in next two days.

Sunspots on May 3, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO / HMI

2047 – Beta-Gamma
2049 – Beta-Gamma
2050 – Alpha
2051 – Beta-Gamma-Delta
2052 – Beta

SWPC forecasters estimate 40% chance of M-class, and 05% chance of X-class solar flares in next 2 days.

Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 304. May 3, 2014 at 06:14 UTC. Edit: The Watchers

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  1. This is what Mark Giampapa said on 1/20/2014.“My opinion is that we are heading into a Maunder Minimum,” said Mark Giampapa, a solar physicist at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. “I’m seeing a continuation in the decline of the sunspots’ mean magnetic field strengths and a weakening of the polar magnetic fields and subsurface flows.” You can read the rest of the article at the following link:
    Now let me tell you-and I am not NASA scientist but a very poor researcher- that the Earth will suffer some deadly consequences, including global failure of all satellite communications in the coming months as Solar storms will generate a great level of radiation that will affect also the Earth’s magnetic field and wake up a great number of volcanoes and increase the already active ones. More important the Earth will change its magnetic field when this solar maximum cycle reaches its peak in the next a few years

  2. when we get hit by the big CME the power grids will burn out
    No electricity running tap water fuel pumps etc
    Earth will be able to rectify itself from the harm we do to it

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