SWPC reported that solar activity continued at moderate levels today as both Regions 1967 (S13E01, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1968 (N10E03, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced M-class flare activity. These included an M2.6 at 06:34 UTC from Region 1968, an M2.2 at 08:20 UTC from Region 1967, and an M4.4 at 09:31 UTC from Region 1967.
Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09:48 UTC off the north, east, and southwest limbs. The CME to the southwest appears to correlate with a backsided filament eruption seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery beginning at 08:25 UTC today.
"We are currently waiting on further LASCO imagery to make an accurate determination of the remaining two CMEs." (SWPC)
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with an increasing chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) from February 2 through 4 due to increased activity and complexity of both Regions 1967 and 1968.
Image credit: ESA/NASA SOHO – LASCO C3
Sunspots on February 2, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO / HMI
Region 1967 continues to be in a moderate growth phase with multiple deltas along its trailing and intermediate spot area with a southeast-northwest orientation.
Region 1967 – February 2, 2014. SDO / HMI
It is now in its second transit through the Earth side of the Sun. Since it returned from the farside it already produced 17 M-class and numerous C-class solar flares. It is now approaching center of the disk, Earth directed CMEs from this region are now very likely.
|EName||Start||Stop||Peak||GOES Class||Derived Position|
|gev_20140127_0105||2014/01/27 01:05:00||01:39:00||01:22:00||M1.0||S16E88 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140127_0202||2014/01/27 02:02:00||02:18:00||02:11:00||M1.1||S13E88 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140127_2205||2014/01/27 22:05:00||22:15:00||22:10:00||M4.9||S14E88 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_0402||2014/01/28 04:02:00||04:13:00||04:09:00||M1.5||S14E88 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_0725||2014/01/28 07:25:00||07:34:00||07:31:00||M3.6||S10E75 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_1134||2014/01/28 11:34:00||11:41:00||11:38:00||M1.4||S10E72 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_1233||2014/01/28 12:33:00||12:50:00||12:46:00||M1.3||S15E79 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_1524||2014/01/28 15:24:00||15:30:00||15:26:00||M3.5||S13E88 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_1900||2014/01/28 19:00:00||19:46:00||19:40:00||M4.9||S14E75 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140128_2204||2014/01/28 22:04:00||22:20:00||22:16:00||M2.6||S14E74 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140130_0633||2014/01/30 06:33:00||06:44:00||06:39:00||M2.1||S14E54 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140130_0754||2014/01/30 07:54:00||08:41:00||08:11:00||M1.1||S11E54 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140130_1548||2014/01/30 15:48:00||16:28:00||16:11:00||M6.6||S11E64 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140201_0119||2014/02/01 01:19:00||01:38:00||01:25:00||M1.0||S10E26 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140201_0714||2014/02/01 07:14:00||07:45:00||07:23:00||M3.0||S10E22 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140202_0717||2014/02/02 07:17:00||08:29:00||08:20:00||M2.2||S11E13 ( 1967 )|
|gev_20140202_0924||2014/02/02 09:24:00||09:36:00||09:31:00||M4.4||S10E14 ( 1967 )|
Data source: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Region 1968 continues to increase in area within its intermediate and trailing spots. New Region 1970 (S18E54, Dao/beta) was numbered today.
Region 1968 – February 2, 2014. SDO / HMI
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels for the rest of the UTC day on February 2 with the anticipated arrival of a glancing blow from the January 30 CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected on February 3 as CME effects diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on February 4. (SWPC)
High latitude sky watchers are already on positions.
Taken by Ryan delos Reyes on February 2, 2014 – Alaska. Image via Space Weather
Featured image: SDO / AIA 304 – February 2, 2014 at 09:38 UTC.
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