Large magnetic filament erupted during the late hours of September 29

A large magnetic filament erupted on Sun's northern hemisphere during the late hours (UTC) of September 29, 2013. The explosion hurled a magnificent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) into space and it does look like it has an Earth-directed component. Our planet's magnetosphere might receive a glancing blow on October 2 – 3 when polar geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible. 

Low energy proton levels streaming past Earth are still on the rise. S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions are expected on September 30 and October 1 due to particle enhancement associated with the CME. Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies are expected.

CME is visible in the STEREO Behind COR2 and SOHO Lasco C3 imagery below:

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 303
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 30 0525 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 30 0505 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 401
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 30 0446 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2013 Sep 30 0500 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

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NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 5% chance for an M-class flare, and 01% chance for an X-class solar flare today.

We are currently experiencing weakest solar maximum in 100 years.

Featured image: courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams