Possible geomagnetic storms today and tomorrow

possible-geomagnetic-storms-today-tomorrow

Giant Coronal Hole CH521 in the sun’s upper atmosphere has just turned directly toward Earth. Coronal holes are places where the sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular gap is en route to Earth, due to arrive today and tomorrow. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms and auroras. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate a 40% chance of geomagnetic storms today in response to a high-speed solar wind stream blowing around Earth.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (30 Jun 2012)

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E17) produced two impulsive M1 flares at 30/1252Z and 30/1832Z. Region 1514 (S15E15) produced several C-class events during the period. Region 1515 (S16E30) continued to 

The geomagnetic field was active during the past 24 hours due to effects from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) that arrived in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Increased solar wind speeds, temperature and density were observed at the ACE spacecraft around 30/0200Z along with an increase in total field strength to approximately 10 nT. Density began to decrease at approximately 30/1600Z while solar wind speeds continued to increase (reaching 700 km/s at the time of this report) indicating the transition from the CIR to the CH HSS.

Solar activity is expected to be unsettled to active during the next three days (01-03 July) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods due to effects from the favorably positioned CH HSS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind
speed: 658.4 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 124 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal4.9 nT
Bz4.0 nT north 

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