NOAA raises El Niño odds to 82%, but strength remains uncertain
El Niño has an 82% chance of developing during May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported on May 14. Current conditions remain ENSO-neutral, and CPC said peak strength remains substantially uncertain, with no strength category above 37%.










