Flood watches cover much of New Mexico as multi-day heavy rainfall event begins

A multi-day surge of tropical and monsoon moisture is forecast to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across New Mexico and adjoining western Texas from Tuesday, September 22, through at least Thursday, September 24.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed portions of southern New Mexico under a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall, level 3 of 4, for the 24-hour period beginning at 12:00 UTC on September 22. WPC said the heaviest rainfall signal had shifted westward toward southwestern New Mexico. For the following 24-hour period, the Moderate Risk shifts toward eastern New Mexico as large-scale forcing strengthens and precipitable water remains near record levels for this time of year.

An approaching upper-level trough, embedded disturbances and deep southerly tropical moisture will provide the large-scale forcing for the event. In southern New Mexico, an early-season backdoor cool front will increase low-level convergence and upslope flow, supporting repeated thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall.

NWS Albuquerque forecasts widespread multi-day rainfall of 76–102 mm (3–4 inches) from the Ruidoso and Roswell areas north toward Las Vegas, Roy and Clayton, with localized totals around 127 mm (5 inches) possible in east-central New Mexico. An upper-end scenario indicates a 10% probability of approximately 152–203 mm (6–8 inches) at some locations along and east of the central mountain chain and in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

NWS Albuquerque – northern and central New Mexico

NWS Albuquerque expanded Flood Watch FA.A.0024 at 01:02 MDT (07:02 UTC) on September 22, adding forecast zones in northwestern, north-central, northeastern, east-central and west-central New Mexico. The watch is in effect from 12:00 MDT (18:00 UTC) on September 22 until 18:00 MDT on September 23 (00:00 UTC on September 24).

The expanded area includes the Northwest Plateau, Chuska Mountains, Far Northwest Highlands, West Central Plateau and San Francisco River Valley. It also covers the Tusas Mountains, including Chama, the Upper Rio Grande Valley, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas, including Raton Pass, Union County and Quay County.

The previously covered area includes the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metropolitan areas, the Middle and Lower Rio Grande valleys, Española Valley, Jemez Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Glorieta Mesa, including Glorieta Pass, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Farther south and west, the watch includes the Sandia and Manzano Mountains, including Edgewood, Estancia Valley, Central Highlands, South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains, Upper Tularosa Valley, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands, Southwest Mountains, West Central Highlands and West Central Mountains.

In northeastern, eastern and southeastern New Mexico, the watch covers the Far Northeast Highlands, Northeast Highlands, Harding County, eastern San Miguel County, Guadalupe County, De Baca County, Chaves County Plains, Southwest Chaves County and eastern Lincoln County.

NWS Albuquerque forecasts widespread heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, with scattered flash flooding likely. Some main-stem rivers and tributaries could flood as rainfall accumulates, particularly where thunderstorms repeatedly pass over the same locations.

By Wednesday afternoon, rainfall is forecast to exceed 38 mm (1.5 inches) in many areas along and east of the central mountain chain and 25 mm (1 inch) in many western locations toward Dulce, Gallup and Glenwood. Stronger storms could produce rainfall rates exceeding 51 mm/h (2 inches per hour), with localized totals above 102 mm (4 inches) possible in parts of southern, central and eastern New Mexico.

Complex terrain, areas below recent burn scars, normally dry arroyos, low-lying locations, urban areas and places near rivers and streams are particularly vulnerable to rapid runoff and flash flooding. Creeks and streams could rise out of their banks, while streets and low-water crossings could flood and storm drains or ditches could become blocked by debris.

Heavy rain is forecast to continue across north-central and eastern New Mexico after the Albuquerque watch expires Wednesday afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are forecast across much of the state on Thursday, September 24.

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa – southern New Mexico

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa continued Flood Watch FA.A.0013 at 03:43 MDT (09:43 UTC) on September 22. The watch covers southwestern and south-central New Mexico and adjoining parts of far western Texas from 12:00 MDT (18:00 UTC) on September 22 until 19:00 MDT on September 23 (01:00 UTC on September 24).

In southwestern New Mexico, the watch includes the Upper Gila River Valley, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Uplands of the Bootheel and Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin. It also covers the Eastern Black Range Foothills, Sierra County Lakes, Central Grant County/Silver City Area and Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range.

Farther east, the watch covers Northern Doña Ana County, Southern Doña Ana County/Mesilla Valley and Otero Mesa. The affected Sacramento Mountains zones include the west and east slopes below 2 286 m (7 500 feet), as well as areas above 2 286 m (7 500 feet).

The watch also covers the West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands, East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo, and Southeast Tularosa Basin. Locations named in the bulletin include Las Cruces, Alamogordo, Hatch, Silver City, Deming, Lordsburg, Truth or Consequences, Tularosa, Cloudcroft, Mescalero, Columbus, Sunland Park, Chaparral, Gila Hot Springs, Mimbres, White Sands National Park, Holloman Air Force Base and Fort Bayard.

The same watch extends into western and eastern/central El Paso County, the Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains and the Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties in far western Texas. El Paso, Fort Bliss, Fabens, Tornillo, and Fort Hancock are among the locations listed.

A separate Texas Flood Watch, FA.A.0014, covers the Salt Basin, Southern Hudspeth Highlands and Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County, including Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, Cornudas, Indian Hot Springs and Dell City. It has the same validity period as the watch covering southern New Mexico.

NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa said an early-season backdoor cool front would interact with a late-season plume of deep tropical moisture, bringing several rounds of thunderstorms with torrential rain from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Repeated storms could produce higher rainfall totals, with the heaviest rain most likely from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Excessive runoff could flood arroyos, rivers, streams and other low-lying or flood-prone locations. Flooding is also possible in urban areas with poor drainage, and inundated low-water crossings could result in road closures.

For eastern Hudspeth County, the NWS expects the heaviest rainfall farther west, closer to El Paso and the Tularosa Basin. More widely scattered thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rain remain possible within the eastern Hudspeth watch area.

NWS Midland/Odessa – southeastern New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa continued Flood Watch FA.A.0005 at 02:16 MDT (08:16 UTC) on September 22. The watch covers southeastern New Mexico and adjoining parts of far western Texas from 12:00 MDT (18:00 UTC) on September 22 until 06:00 MDT (12:00 UTC) on September 24.

In southeastern New Mexico, the watch covers the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County, Eddy County Plains, Northern Lea County, and Central Lea County. Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs, Lovington, Tatum, Queen, and the Carlsbad Caverns National Park area are among the locations identified in the bulletin.

The adjoining Texas area includes parts of the Guadalupe Mountains above 2 134 m (7 000 feet), the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor and eastern Culberson County. Pine Springs, Van Horn and Guadalupe Mountains National Park are among the locations listed.

NWS Midland/Odessa forecasts numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms as deep tropical moisture interacts with multiple upper-level disturbances. Successive rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying or flood-prone locations, urban areas with poor drainage, and at low-water crossings; rivers, creeks, and streams could also flood.

Residents in the watch areas should monitor later NWS forecasts and be prepared to act if Flood or Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

References:

¹ Flood Watch summary – NOAA/NWS – September 22, 2026

² WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook – NWS/WPC – September 22, 2026