Solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray flux on the wane? Something extraordinary is happening

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray flux on the wane? Something extraordinary is happening

Coronal holes rarely made the news during Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 24, however, is a different story.

As early as August 2013, in the middle of this solar cycle’s "double hump" maximum, a Fox News correspondent asked Corey Powell of Discover Magazine about the following coronal hole:

A few other sporadic articles appeared on the Internet over the next couple of years with headlines that included "giant hole" and "massive hole" to describe coronal holes that were indeed much larger than anything seen during the previous solar minimum. Something else was different about them. The handful of large coronal holes in the previous solar cycle appeared in the polar regions of the Sun. Coronal holes in the polar regions are not unusual, but these holes were appearing in the middle of the Sun. Towards the end of May, 2016, the reports about spectacular coronal holes started to appear with regularity. Now they were called "huge," "vast," "giant," and even "monstrous" coronal holes. One U.K. reporter began the title of his article with "The Sun is Ripping Apart!" Not to be outdone, someone else reported on a "‘Death Star’-like coronal hole."

These may not be exaggerations. I have often thought that the coronal holes we are seeing this solar cycle are being underreported. One of my favorites is from October 25, 2016.

I searched spaceweather.com's "Time Machine" for all of 2007, 2008, and 2009 (all during the extended solar minimum last solar cycle) and nothing in Solar Cycle 23 comes close to this "monstrous" coronal hole. I cannot look at a picture like this without being reminded of an email from an acquaintance who quoted a NASA scientist− in reference to the frequent filament eruptions happening this past solar maximum−as saying something to the effect that the corona was being "ripped" off the Sun. Perhaps we have not observed the Sun long enough to know how unusual these large coronal holes are. Maybe they are extraordinary, maybe not. The subject of this article is something else.

Coronal holes are the source of high speed solar winds. It is widely known that there is an inverse relationship between the solar wind and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). A strong solar wind normally results in a drop in the GCR flux. The "something extraordinary" referred to in the title of this article is that for the last several days this inverse relationship has gone missing. Here is the current coronal hole:

Since last Saturday, May 5, 2018 it has been generating a solar wind well in excess of 600 km/s and as high as 700 km/s. Normally, in the face of such a strong solar wind, GCRs would show a significant drop of around two percent. It has not happened. In fact, GCR’s are actually climbing. I am not a scientist. I am a semi-retired computer programmer, but I am not a casual observer, either. For the past five years I have checked spaceweather.com and the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station in Finland obsessively, as many as five times a day, studying the relationship between solar activity and GCRs. One thing I have noticed along with others is that after a long lull in solar activity, a "proton event" (high solar winds with an elevated proton density) triggers large earthquakes. I actually predicted a "7.0 or higher earthquake" in an email to a dear friend days before the 7.5 earthquake in Mexico on February 16, 2018. I am not bragging (well maybe a little). The point is that there is a large number of casual observers on the Internet whose observations, though outside mainstream science, are not without merit. And for at least the past five years, I doubt very many mainstream scientists have even observed the relationship between the solar wind and GCRs as closely as I have. Here is the GCR chart from Oulu Cosmic Ray Station for the past 30 days:

And here is the yearly chart dating back to 1965 when observations began:

The +5% line represents a GCR count of 6472. The +10% line is 6780. All during these past several days, GCRs have remained at or near their peak for this solar minimum, which is around 6700. Normally, when a solar wind like this one hits earth there is a immediate drop in the range of two percent or down to around 6500, and a recovery time measured in days. It just didn’t happen this time, and I have never seen anything like this.

Were this to continue, things could get interesting. GCRs are clearly related to the extreme rain happening all over the world, and many of us "casual observers" as well as number of mainstream scientists think they are also closely related to an increase in lightning, seismic and volcanic activity, and even tornadoes. Something extraordinary may indeed be happening.

Featured image credit: NASA/SDO

Comments

Ted 1 month ago

The Sunspot observatory just shut down! Security issue?

I don't think so.

Erebus 6 months ago

I appreciate your answer dear Mr. Luther and I will carefully try to read and investigate the works of Mr. Jamal with an open mind. Certainly, we all as human beings must walk a long path in search of the truth since our childhood. There may be a point in which we can realize ourselves that most of the "interpretations" of our world that where teached to us when younger, did in fact not serve the truth but complex agendas and belief systems that don't necessarly represent the best understanding that humans can achieve.
I consider myself one of those that recently got rid off the chains of predjuice and started to wander in the new fields of the doubt and hunger for the knowledgement.
Mr. Rolf Witzche may have derailled (or may be not) and his proposals will be tested by the develpments that we are about to experience (as well as anyone's else proposals) but what is sure for me, is that people like Mr. Witzche, Mr. Jamal and even you Mr. Dehaven, are our spearheads to penetrate the veils of darkness and find the light whereever it may be hidding.
I admire your personal conviction and moral strength to continue fighting in search of truth against all odds.
Please don't surrender, no matter how hard and alone you can feel yourself in this battle.
Thanks
Julio

Erebus 6 months ago

Dear Mr. Luther DeHaven and Dear Jamal Shrair. I follow with great interest your conversation and I guess there is a lot of information contained in your works that would become particularly interesting for those of us that where not aware of your research. If there is any link where we can follow your works, please let us know.
We are watching changes in the sun and its neiborghood (including our planet) that obviously are cyclical, but we can't comprehend yet the mechanisms from our mainstream science. Few people may still not consider that the sun is powered from external source and that in fact, earth has recorded most of the time being in glacial state, with just an small percentage of the time as warm as our present holocene.
How possibly right may be the idea of Mr. Rolf Witzche, regarding pulses of energy fueling our sun by intervals spared by a colder state. May be this mechanism of heliacal motion in which the sun going up and down from the equatorial plane becomes active only for a narrow period of time while transiting (some 12.000 years in the equatorial plane (Active sun) followed by some 90.000 years of colder state?
Best regards
Julio

Luther DeHaven (@Erebus) 6 months ago

Mr. Rolf Witzche is a co-religionist of mine, though I do not know him personally. I find that in his latest work that he has gone off the rails. He is trying to attribute the extra GCR flux to the sun. That said, he deserves credit for fighting for the recognition that the Northern Hemisphere is headed into a period of extreme cold. I think what is more important here is that the ice core temperature records are not necessarily an indication of what may be happening now or in the future. If you believe, as I do, that the Polar Configuration of the planets is remembered by our ancestors because it was their reality until very recently, then we live in an entirely different reality now primarily because earth is no longer inside Saturn's magnetosphere. We no longer enjoy he protection of Saturn's magnetosphere from GCR flux. It continually amazes me how people like Wallace Thornhill are not even considering the significance of this. More than five years of intense study tell me Jamal is correct in everything he is saying. I am eager to study his work more. Now stop and consider what is going to happen when the solar system hits this electromagnetic boundary when it is forced back in the direction of the galactic plane. If I understand him correctly, we are going to see the maximum exposure of earth to GCR flux. The point I want to make is that this may be happening for the first time outside of Saturn's protective magnetosphere. If so, earth will experience a level of GCR flux not seen for millions of years, and the consequences, which we may be experiencing even now, will be almost unimaginable. Last solar minimum saw the highest level of GCRs since we began measuring them. I could never forget how people were starting to wake up and ask "What's happening?" The extreme weather events were happening almost daily. I firmly believe GCRs will go off the scale in the coming months and years. So what we are facing is a combination of Jamal's helical motion of the solar system up and down through the galactic plane and happening in THOUSANDS of years, not millions, with our binary relationship with the Sirius star system, what I call the elephant in the room. The two cannot be considered apart. GCRs continue to behave erratically. The next few months should be telling.

Luther DeHaven 6 months ago

Jamal,
First off, thank you for acknowledging that I may be seeing evidence of everything you say. Coming from you, it meant a lot to me.
It seems somewhat obvious to me that you are right about the heliacal motion of our solar system being centered on the galactic plane. Frankly, I am a little puzzled why I never thought of it. What utterly fascinated me though is when you said, “The cycle of spiraling up and down takes thousands of years to be completed, not millions…To complete one cycle of going above-and-below the galactic plane, it takes the sun thousands of years, but the exact duration of the cycle is unknown due to different interactions and variable factors.”
Having just shut down my website because I am tired of hearing the echo of my own voice, it is difficult to know where to start. So I am just going to leapfrog a ton of data concerning the ancients and point out to you that from the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar (the duration of which is actually 2160 orbits of Jupiter) to Stonehenge and a multitude of other examples I could site, for some reason the ancients always associate the number five with 2160. Is it conceivable to you that the heliacal motion of the solar system above and below the galactic plane could be 5124.2976 years(432 orbits of Jupiter or one Great Cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar)? This is a sincere question. Do you think this is too little time? My second question is equally dear to me. Do you think we could be approaching the zenith of that orbit this very year? This would explain the lessening of solar modulation with this last coronal hole.

Jamal Shrair 6 months ago

Dear Luther,
You raised important questions based on well observed facts. Mainstream physicists are also aware of these observed facts, but they have no theoretical explanations for them. It is impossible of course, to explain these facts based on the current mainstream understanding of the Sun. However, the explanations are present within my article that was published on 14 of April 2018

Luther DeHaven (@Jamal Shrair) 6 months ago

Jamal,

I am preparing a response to your article of 14 April 2018, which I will post here. It has been up on my screen since the day you wrote it. I just need to say I have never read anything as compelling as what you have to say in this article. It is an amazing work.

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