Old Region 2192 returns with moderate M3.2 and M3.7 solar flares

Old Region 2192 returns with moderate M3.2 and M3.7 solar flares

Old Region 2192, now numbered 2209 ('beta-gamma'), has returned on the Earth side of the Sun, with moderately strong M3.2 solar flare on November 15, 2014. The latest event from this region started at 11:40, peaked at 12:03 and ended at 12:10 UTC.

A 10cm Radio Burst lasting 8 minutes (peak flux 229 sfu) was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Region 2209 is large and magnetically complex region but it is still not in favorable position for Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). This will change in the coming days as it rotates toward the center of the disk. It is capable of producing more strong eruptions.

Further analysis of this event will be conducted as imagery becomes available.

A filament eruption was observed centered near N30W55 in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 15:51 UTC on November 14. A faint CME associated with this event was determined to be too far north and west of the ecliptic plane to have an earthward component, SWPC said in their latest Forecast Discussion published 12:30 UTC today.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 644
Issue Time: 2014 Nov 15 1229 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 15 1155 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Nov 15 1155 UTC
End Time: 2014 Nov 15 1203 UTC
Duration: 8 minutes
Peak Flux: 229 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 161 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Sunspots

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk.

Old Region 2192, source of more than 30 M-class and 6 X-class flares during its last rotation through the Earth side, appears to have nearly completed its rotation onto the visible disk. Its new designation number is 2209. Overall areal coverage was 780 millionths with a length of 23 degrees, but proximity to the east limb is still prohibiting an accurate magnetic analysis.

Region 2205 (N15W70, Dai/beta) continues to rotate closer to the west limb. It exhibited signs of decay in last 12 hours, and produced a C3/Sf flare at 15:08 UTC on November 14.

Region 2208 (S12W03, Fai/beta) grew in total length to near 22 degrees, but displayed overall spot decay.

New Region 2213 (S10E30, Cro/beta) was numbered overnight.

The rest of the spotted regions are relatively stable.

Sunspots on November 15, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO/HMI

2205 - Beta
2207 - Alpha
2208 - Beta-Gamma
2209 - Beta-Gamma
2211 - Beta
2212 - Alpha

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) for the next three days (November 15 - 17) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater). Regions 2208 and 2209 are the most likely regions to produce significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels today and tomorrow. There is a chance for high levels on November 17 due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2209.

An increase in solar wind speeds is anticipated through November 16 and 17 as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Wind speeds are expected to be greater than 600 km/s, based on recurrence.

Geospace

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in last 12 hours, with an isolated active period from 09:00-12:00 UTC today, and is expected to be at quiet to active levels through the rest of the day.

A CIR preceding a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to influence the geomagnetic field approximately midday on November 16 causing an increase in activity to active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. Quiet to active levels are expected to continue into November 17 as CH HSS activity persists. (Data source: SWPC, Forecast Discussion published 12:30 UTC on November 15, 2014)

Update:

A second M-class solar flare of the day, peaking as M3.7, erupted from Region 2209 at 20:46 UTC. The event started at 20:38 and ended at 20:50 UTC. A 10cm Radio Burst was also associated with this event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 645
Issue Time: 2014 Nov 15 2056 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 15 2042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Nov 15 2043 UTC
End Time: 2014 Nov 15 2044 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 161 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Featured image: NASA SDO / AIA 131 at 12:00 UTC on November 15, 2014.

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