Long duration solar flare reaching M1.9 peaked at 14:31 UTC Monday, May 7, 2012

long-duration-solar-flare-reaching-m1-9-peaked-at-1431-utc-monday-may-7-2012

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from May 06/21:00 UTC to May 07/21:00 UTC: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810 Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; today’s only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470 (S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50).

This sunspot complex produced an M1/1n x-ray event on May 07, 2012 at 14:31 UTC. Multiple discrete radio frequency bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu Tenflare lasting 12 minutes and a Type IV radio sweep.

Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

These characteristics, as well as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth directed CME.

Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of the Earths magnetic field.

Earlier in the day, May 07, 2012 at 04:00 UTC, another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it was determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

Region 1476 continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates further onto the solar disk.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 – 10 May).

Geophysical Activity Summary May 06/21:00 UTC to May 07/21:00 UTC: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May. Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective position.

Quiet to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of today’s CME.

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