Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) raised the probability of a historic-strength El Niño during October–December 2026 to 75% on September 10, up from 69% in August, after the coupled ocean-atmosphere event strengthened further across the tropical Pacific. CPC also raised the probability of a very strong event during the same three-month period from 95% to 98%.
Global surface air temperature averaged 16.96°C (62.53°F) in August 2026, making it the warmest August in ERA5, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported on September 10. Extra-polar sea surface temperature (SST) averaged 21.07°C (69.93°F), the dataset’s highest August value, while daily SST reached an ERA5 record of 21.11°C (70.00°F) on August 24 and 25.
Indonesian search teams recovered an unidentified life jacket west of Anyer on September 10, 2026, during the third day of operations for eight people — five journalists, a boat captain, a crew member and a guide — missing in the Sunda Strait after travelling toward Anak Krakatau to cover its eruptive activity. The Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) said the operation had expanded to six search sectors, with at least 11 principal vessels, more than 300 personnel and a Dauphin AS365 N3+ helicopter deployed. Authorities said the life jacket had not been linked to the missing speedboat, while an aerial search found no sign of the group.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has Red Flag Warnings in effect across parts of Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Idaho and South Dakota on September 10, 2026, as very low relative humidity, dry vegetation and gusty winds produce critical fire-weather conditions across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Minimum relative humidity may fall as low as 5% in southeastern Wyoming, while wind gusts may reach approximately 65 km/h (40 mph) in parts of Wyoming and Montana.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued Heat Advisories for parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee from 11:00 to 20:00 CDT on September 10, 2026 (16:00 UTC on September 10 to 01:00 UTC on September 11). Heat-index values could reach approximately 43°C (109°F) in central, eastern and southeastern Arkansas and 42°C (107°F) elsewhere in the Mid-South. Farther west, temperatures near 38°C (100°F) are forecast in parts of North Texas as dangerous late-summer heat persists across the southern United States.
The death toll from the September 6 avalanche on Mount Mizhirgi in Russia’s Kabardino-Balkaria has risen to 14, while three climbers remain missing. Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) suspended search-and-rescue operations at 15:50 MSK (12:50 UTC) on September 9 after another snow-and-ice mass descended in the Bezengi Gorge. The agency said 63 personnel were at the site and that a Mi-8 helicopter was expected to be deployed after daylight on September 10.
A heat wave across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast brought temperatures well above normal on September 9, 2026, with daytime highs and overnight lows forecast 6–11°C (10–20°F) above normal and widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the region. The National Weather Service (NWS) said the heat would persist through September 10, with inland highs reaching approximately 32–41°C (90–105°F), while the Bay Area Air District issued a Spare the Air Alert as ground-level ozone was forecast to reach unhealthy levels in parts of the Bay Area.
Malibu ordered evacuations along Sea Level Drive after an expanding sinkhole collapsed the driveway of a beachfront home reportedly owned by actor Nicolas Cage and severely constrained emergency access. Seven residences had been red-tagged because of hazardous conditions, while another 24 were to be red-tagged because safe vehicular access had been lost.
One person died on Oʻahu as Hurricane Lowell passed the Hawaiian Islands late on September 7, 2026 (local time), while the storm’s core passed near Niʻihau with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph). Approximately 90% of Kauaʻi Island Utility Cooperative customers were without power the following morning, while numerous roads and Port Allen Small-Boat Harbor sustained severe damage. Preliminary National Weather Service (NWS) observations included a gust of approximately 150 km/h (92 mph) at Puʻu Lua and a 72-hour rainfall total of 536.2 mm (21.11 inches) at Kilohana.
Nagoya recorded 104.5 mm (4.1 inches) of rain in one hour on September 8, 2026, setting an all-time station record as flooding disrupted roads and rail services. Nagoya City issued Level 5 Emergency Safety Measures for communities along the Kanare, Yada and Ueda rivers, while the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism issued a Level 5 flood special warning for the Shonai River system at 18:20 LT (09:20 UTC). The municipal Level 5 measures were downgraded at 22:25 LT (13:25 UTC), while local media reported four injuries across Aichi Prefecture.
