A moderately strong solar flare reaching M2.5 at its peak time erupted from Region 2130 on July 31, 2014, at 11:14 UTC. The event started at 11:01 and ended at 11:21 UTC.
Region 2130 has 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic configuration and is located near the Sun's eastern limb. If CME was produced by this event it should not be Earth directed.
The region is stable but capable of producing strong to major solar flares as it rotates into more geoeffective position in the coming days.
NOAA SWPC forecasters estimate 30% chance for M-class, and 5% chance for X-class solar flares in next two days.
A 31 degree filament eruption centered near N08E32 (north-eastern quadrant) was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning around 30/04:00 UTC. A CME subsequently appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/07:00 UTC and was also captured in STEREO A and B COR2 imagery. Preliminary analysis indicated the ejecta was moving around 700 km/s and had an Earth-directed component.
An initial WSA-Enlil model run suggests a glancing blow early on August 02. However, the model solar wind speeds appear to be over-estimated and arrival is expected mid to late on August 02.
Timing will continue to be refined as additional analysis and modeling are carried out.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Sunspots on July 31, 2014. Image credit: NASA/SDO
2121 – Beta
2123 – Alpha
2125 – Alpha
2126 – Beta
2127 – Beta-Gamma
2128 – Alpha
2129 – Alpha
2130 – Beta-Gamma-Delta
2131 – Beta
Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 131
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