Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected as solar activity picks up

From the start of October, Sun erupted 28 M-class and 3 X-class solar flares, sending the material into the space.

Solar activity is still raising with major X1.0 flare on October 28, 2013 and four moderate M-class flares. While our geomagnetic field is expecting impact of CMEs from two X-class and several M-class flares, last X1.0 and following M5.1 eruptions launched another set of plasma clouds into the space, partially in direction of our planet as well. 

GOES X-Ray flux shows increased activity for period from October 27, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/SWPC) 

Strong X1.0 solar flare erupted around 02:03 UTC from Sunspot 1875 located at the western limb. This event produced a bright coronal mass ejection (CME), mostly heading west. However, some parts may still be Earth directed. A second CME was generated following an M5.1 flare at 04:41 UTC. Type II and Type IV emissions were register, and 170 sfu Tenflare. The cloud was directed well westward, away from Earth.

SDO's AIA 304 and EVE shows moments of strong X-class eruption on October 28, 2013 (Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

Sunspot 1875 is beta-gama-delta class and is capable of producing the strongest solar flares. This active region is about to cross the visible solar disk and focus its activity on the farside. There are currently four beta-gamma-delta class sunspots on the visible solar disk – 1875, 1877, 1882 and 1884. 

Sunspot 1882 erupted M2.7 and M4.4. A Type II radio emission was detected, Latest LASCO imagery show plasma cloud emerging from the Sun. It is expected to bring G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels on October 31, 2013. Sunspot 1882 is now located more closer to the center of the visible solar disk so any events from this active region could launch a plasma cloud in our direction.

SOHO's LASCO imagery show few  Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from october 28, 2013 (Credit: SOHO/ESA/NASA)

LASCO C2 observed a halo CME at 15:24 UTC on October 28, associated with the M4.4 flare at 15:07 UTC from Sunspot 1882 and with a Type II emission. This CME is Earth directed. Estimation of time of arrival and geomagnetic impact will be carried out once more data are available.

New active region is about to emerge at the northwestern limb. There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

SDO/HMI Intensitygram – active region map (Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

We can expect unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals in the next 24 hours. 

Here is Timeline of M and X class eruptions: October 25 – 28, 2013 and video showing solar activity from October 20 to 27, 2013.

Global D-Region Absortion map at 08:02 UTC on October 29, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/SWPC)

NOAA/SWPC expects moderate to high levels of solar activity. More M-class events are expected with a further chance for X-class flares for the next three days​. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimated 65% chance of an M-class and 35% chance of X-class solar flares in the next three days.

Proton levels are slightly rising now. Our geomagnetic field is at quiet levels for now. Kp index is 1 or bellow.

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected

Valid From: 2013 Oct 29 0820 UTC

Valid To: 2013 Oct 29 0920 UTC

IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 29 0722 UTC

Update: October 29, 2013 (22:30 UTC)

Powerful X2.3 solar flare erupted from decaying Sunspot 1875 at 21:54 UTC. The event was responsible for a strong R3 radio blackout level alert.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2013 Oct 29 2158 UTC

This event is associated with Type IV emission. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. However, Sunspot 1875 is now located at the end of western limb so this eruption could hardly produce geoeffective ejections.

Featured image: NASA SDO