Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected as solar activity picks up

Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected as solar activity picks up

From the start of October, Sun erupted 28 M-class and 3 X-class solar flares, sending the material into the space.

Solar activity is still raising with major X1.0 flare on October 28, 2013 and four moderate M-class flares. While our geomagnetic field is expecting impact of CMEs from two X-class and several M-class flares, last X1.0 and following M5.1 eruptions launched another set of plasma clouds into the space, partially in direction of our planet as well. 

GOES X-Ray flux shows increased activity for period from October 27, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/SWPC) 

Strong X1.0 solar flare erupted around 02:03 UTC from Sunspot 1875 located at the western limb. This event produced a bright coronal mass ejection (CME), mostly heading west. However, some parts may still be Earth directed. A second CME was generated following an M5.1 flare at 04:41 UTC. Type II and Type IV emissions were register, and 170 sfu Tenflare. The cloud was directed well westward, away from Earth.

SDO's AIA 304 and EVE shows moments of strong X-class eruption on October 28, 2013 (Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

Sunspot 1875 is beta-gama-delta class and is capable of producing the strongest solar flares. This active region is about to cross the visible solar disk and focus its activity on the farside. There are currently four beta-gamma-delta class sunspots on the visible solar disk - 1875, 1877, 1882 and 1884. 

Sunspot 1882 erupted M2.7 and M4.4. A Type II radio emission was detected, Latest LASCO imagery show plasma cloud emerging from the Sun. It is expected to bring G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels on October 31, 2013. Sunspot 1882 is now located more closer to the center of the visible solar disk so any events from this active region could launch a plasma cloud in our direction.

SOHO's LASCO imagery show few  Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from october 28, 2013 (Credit: SOHO/ESA/NASA)

LASCO C2 observed a halo CME at 15:24 UTC on October 28, associated with the M4.4 flare at 15:07 UTC from Sunspot 1882 and with a Type II emission. This CME is Earth directed. Estimation of time of arrival and geomagnetic impact will be carried out once more data are available.

New active region is about to emerge at the northwestern limb. There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

SDO/HMI Intensitygram - active region map (Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams)

We can expect unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals in the next 24 hours. 

Here is Timeline of M and X class eruptions: October 25 - 28, 2013 and video showing solar activity from October 20 to 27, 2013.

Global D-Region Absortion map at 08:02 UTC on October 29, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/SWPC)

NOAA/SWPC expects moderate to high levels of solar activity. More M-class events are expected with a further chance for X-class flares for the next three days​. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimated 65% chance of an M-class and 35% chance of X-class solar flares in the next three days.

Proton levels are slightly rising now. Our geomagnetic field is at quiet levels for now. Kp index is 1 or bellow.

 

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected

Valid From: 2013 Oct 29 0820 UTC

Valid To: 2013 Oct 29 0920 UTC

IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 29 0722 UTC

Update: October 29, 2013 (22:30 UTC)

Powerful X2.3 solar flare erupted from decaying Sunspot 1875 at 21:54 UTC. The event was responsible for a strong R3 radio blackout level alert.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2013 Oct 29 2158 UTC

This event is associated with Type IV emission. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. However, Sunspot 1875 is now located at the end of western limb so this eruption could hardly produce geoeffective ejections.

Featured image: NASA SDO

Tags: cme, m-class, x-class

Comments

Mark Clark..AKA WA2FCQ 6 years ago

IIIIeeeeeemmmmm bAaaaaaaaaaaquee Unsettled space weather not surprising. 40 and 80 were active on my Hot Water 12 and 22. Halloween Hi Jinks unremarkable. The brats are afraid of me because I'm "weeeerd" for real, and all the time, not just on halloween. I didn't exactly have a welcome mat out so the escorted goblins marched by as I snoozed with the Heathkits turned down low. I thought about really WEIRDING them out with a home brew Bad Boy CB amp I picked up just for a conversation piece. I COULD have placed in the window with mad scientist pictures and lots of fake lighting sparks.. but I thought better of it. That would have been an invitation for the t and t ers, and frankly I'm not up to that. It would have been pretty cool though. Imagine A HUGE IMAC tranmitter tube with GIANT variable plate caps tuning HUGE COILS from an old refrigerator. ALL mounted on a slab of pine. NO COVER!! IT's a SIGHT! I got it at a HAM-FEST and almost certainly saved the life of some newly licensed "lid" with more guts than brains plus access to a KILLER-VOLT POWER SUPPLY! Well...now that I have this off my chest.. The GUILT, that is, for not being more friendly towards the local tykes in costume on this auspicious holiday-- I've got a WHOLE YEAR to plan how to set the thing out to accomidate them with candy hidden among the TERRIFYING COILS. Lit with safe..twelve volt blinking sparkly christmas lights, of course. mc PS...It just occurred to me! Maybe some less kermudginny ham than myself builT this thing ON PURPOSE! AS A HALLOWEEN DECORATION! NAAAAAAAAAAAA??

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