Moderate solar flare measuring M2.8 peaked from Region 1613

Moderate solar flare measuring M2.8, at it’s peak, erupted from Region 1613 at 20:54 UTC, November 13, 2012. A 10cm Radio Burst was associated with the event, this can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare.

This is the same region that already produced three M-class events in past 24 hours, this is now its fourth. At 23:28 UTC, November 12, 2012 Region 1613 peaked with M2.0 solar flare, then on November 13, 2012 at 02:04 an impulsive M6.0 flare peaked followed by M2.5 at 05:50 UTC and M2.8 at 20:54 UTC.  At least two minor Coronal Mass Ejections are visible in Lasco C2 imagery, they don’t appear directed toward Earth.

NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 65% chance for M-class solar flares and 15% chance for X-class solar flares, valid from November 14 – November 16, 2012.

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Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 568
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 2141 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 13 2052 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Nov 13 2053 UTC
End Time: 2012 Nov 13 2054 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

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NOAA/SWPC issued extended warning for geomagnetic storming levels. K-index of 4 is expected at least until 06:00 UTC, November 14, 2012. Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2028
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 2059 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2027
Valid From: 2012 Nov 13 1533 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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K-index of 6 reached, November 14, 2012, 06:00 UTC:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 300
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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Absorption prediction – Global map – 1dB (ABS)

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: 

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region 1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at 12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15 Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

Class M 65/65/65
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

Featured image: NOAA/SWPC

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