New tropical cyclone brewing in the Caribbean Sea, could strengthen into a major hurricane before threatening the U.S.

tropical rainstorm caribbean sea 0740z september 23 2022 f

A new tropical cyclone is brewing in the Caribbean Sea and forecast models call for rapid strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, starting on September 27, 2022, before threatening the United States.

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean Sea about 160 km (100 miles) NNE of Curacao, NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida reports on September 23.

Even though the upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable, only a small additional increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression later today.

The system is expected to continue moving WNW 15 – 25 km/h (10 to 15 mph) across the central and western Caribbean Sea.

Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday, September 23.

Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system.

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A tropical rainstorm that has been skirting along the northern coast of South America could eventually shift from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, where it may undergo rapid strengthening into a major hurricane before threatening the United States, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

Formation chance through the next 48 hours is 90%.

Featured image credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers. Acquired at 07:40 UTC on September 23, 2022

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