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SWPC: Solar Cycle 24 declining more quickly than forecast

swpc-solar-cycle-24-declining-more-quickly-than-forecast

Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) reports.

The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May 2018 is about 15. However, the actual monthly values have been lower, they say.

Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? Leading solar and space science experts will convene a meeting in the coming years and attempt to predict solar cycle 25.

The 'official' solar cycle forecast includes the month, year, and intensity of that maximum (peak, average sunspot number). The consensus forecast is the result of collaboration by a solar cycle prediction panel of solar and space scientists from around the world.

Typically, the panel considers all new, relevant research results, observation trends, and model predictions available when the panel is convened.

ISES Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression through March 2018

Just like hurricane season forecasts, solar cycle predictions have improved. However, there are still notable deviations in prediction versus actual activity.

The previous solar cycle prediction panel’s forecast for solar cycle 24 called for a maximum average sunspot number of 90 to occur in May 2013. After looking at the actual sunspot numbers and solar activity, it was determined the solar cycle 24 maximum was reached in April 2014 and peaked at an average sunspot number of 82.

While the peak value was within the expected range of error, the maximum occurred significantly later than the panel’s prediction.

ISES Solar Cycloe F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression through March 2018ISES Solar Cycle Ap Progression through March 2018

Featured image credit: TW

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8 Comments

  1. Climatic changes on planets and cycles of sunspots, the effects of interactions between the sun and the planet. The greatest influence on all these changes is the magnetic fields of all participants. What is happening on Earth and what is seen in the sun, it causes four planets with the sun. I’ll try to check this 25 solar cycle.

  2. Solar physicists use three different methods to predict solar activity. Precursor methods, extrapolation methods and the so-called model based methods. These methods have shown to be unreliable in the last few solar cycles. In fact, most of the predictions were in complete contradiction to the physical reality of the Sun. Sun Surprisingly Active during Low Point in Cycle https://www.space.com/7296-sun-surprisingly-active-point-cycle.html
    What’s wrong with the sun? https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627640-800-whats-wrong-with-the-sun/
    What On Earth Is Going On With The Sun Right Now? http://www.iflscience.com/space/why-is-the-sun-freaking-out-right-now/
    Massive Sunspots and Solar Flares The Sun Has Gone Wrong and Scientists Don’t Know Why http://www.newsweek.com/solar-minimum-sun-activity-solar-flare-baffling-scientists-661695
    The sun is acting pretty strange right now http://bgr.com/2017/09/08/solar-flare-sun-minimum-event/
    All leading solar and space science experts who will convene a meeting in the coming years trying to predict solar cycle 25 are not going to come up with any realistic solar cycle forecast or prediction. How can they predict solar activity if they believe that the Sun is thermonuclear furnace?

  3. Solar physicists use three different methods to predict solar activity. Precursor methods, extrapolation methods and the so-called model based methods. These methods have shown to be unreliable in the last few solar cycles. In fact, most of the predictions were in complete contradiction to the physical reality of the Sun. Sun Surprisingly Active during Low Point in Cycle https://www.space.com/7296-sun-surprisingly-active-point-cycle.html
    What’s wrong with the sun? https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627640-800-whats-wrong-with-the-sun/
    What On Earth Is Going On With The Sun Right Now? http://www.iflscience.com/space/why-is-the-sun-freaking-out-right-now/
    Massive Sunspots and Solar Flares The Sun Has Gone Wrong and Scientists Don’t Know Why http://www.newsweek.com/solar-minimum-sun-activity-solar-flare-baffling-scientists-661695
    The sun is acting pretty strange right now http://bgr.com/2017/09/08/solar-flare-sun-minimum-event/
    All leading solar and space science experts who will convene a meeting in the coming years trying to predict solar cycle 25 are not going to come up with any realistic solar cycle forecast or prediction. How can they predict solar activity if they believe that the Sun is thermonuclear furnace?

  4. Solar physicists use three different methods to predict solar activity. Precursor methods, extrapolation methods and the so-called model based methods. These methods have shown to be unreliable in the last few solar cycles. In fact, most of the predictions were in complete contradiction to the physical reality of the Sun. Sun Surprisingly Active during Low Point in Cycle https://www.space.com/7296-sun-surprisingly-active-point-cycle.html
    What’s wrong with the sun? https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627640-800-whats-wrong-with-the-sun/
    What On Earth Is Going On With The Sun Right Now? http://www.iflscience.com/space/why-is-the-sun-freaking-out-right-now/
    Massive Sunspots and Solar Flares The Sun Has Gone Wrong and Scientists Don’t Know Why http://www.newsweek.com/solar-minimum-sun-activity-solar-flare-baffling-scientists-661695
    The sun is acting pretty strange right now http://bgr.com/2017/09/08/solar-flare-sun-minimum-event/
    All leading solar and space science experts who will convene a meeting in the coming years trying to predict solar cycle 25 are not going to come up with any realistic solar cycle forecast or prediction. How can they predict solar activity if they believe that the Sun is thermonuclear furnace?

  5. Solar physicists use three different methods to predict solar activity. Precursor methods, extrapolation methods and the so-called model based methods. These methods have shown to be unreliable in the last few solar cycles. In fact, most of the predictions were in complete contradiction to the physical reality of the Sun. Sun Surprisingly Active during Low Point in Cycle https://www.space.com/7296-sun-surprisingly-active-point-cycle.html
    What’s wrong with the sun? https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627640-800-whats-wrong-with-the-sun/
    What On Earth Is Going On With The Sun Right Now? http://www.iflscience.com/space/why-is-the-sun-freaking-out-right-now/
    Massive Sunspots and Solar Flares The Sun Has Gone Wrong and Scientists Don’t Know Why http://www.newsweek.com/solar-minimum-sun-activity-solar-flare-baffling-scientists-661695
    The sun is acting pretty strange right now http://bgr.com/2017/09/08/solar-flare-sun-minimum-event/
    All leading solar and space science experts who will convene a meeting in the coming years trying to predict solar cycle 25 are not going to come up with any realistic solar cycle forecast or prediction. How can they predict solar activity if they believe that the Sun is thermonuclear furnace?

  6. Thousands of years ago someone (not the Mayans) designed the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar. The design included three cogs, all of which must continue turning until they get to the end at which point the end date is December 16, 2013, not December 21, 2012. December 16, 2013 marks almost perfectly the middle of Solar Cycle 24’s “double hump” maximum, which an ever growing number of people now think is not only the end of the Modern Maximum but the start of a new Grand Solar Minimum or even a new ice age. Maybe–just maybe–they knew something we do not.

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